Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio?
Yes at 0% on 1 Nov 2026, down 34 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 27 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Republican candidate will win Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, while losing them in Maine and Ohio. The market will resolve based on consensus calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
As the election approaches, campaigns are entering their final stretches with heightened scrutiny on specific state races. In Michigan, infighting within the Democratic campaign has made headlines as candidates exchange barbs in the final days. Meanwhile, legal battles and disputes have arisen in Alaska regarding ballot procedures and demands from the Trump administration.
Key figures mentioned in recent coverage include Abdul El-Sayed and Haley Stevens in Michigan, alongside candidates in Texas and Alaska. The election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with final market resolution contingent on official race calls from the designated news sources.
Sources: PBS: When will we know 2026 midterm election results? It may take some time, but that's normal, NBC News: Abdul El-Sayed’s campaign asks Haley Stevens not to attend campaign events following clash over Israel, MS NOW: El-Sayed Senate campaign asks Haley Stevens to stay away in Michigan, The Washington Post: ‘Lock in’: Michigan Democrats look to stop open fighting in key Senate race, PBS: Paxton and Talarico tussle for Texas Senate seat as Trump campaigns virtually, PBS: Attorneys for Alaska say 'meritless' Trump demand to set aside Senate ballots 'not even possible', Financial Times: Michigan feud threatens Democratic unity in key Senate race, The Guardian: Haley Stevens advised to stay away from Abdul El-Sayed campaign events to limit ‘distractions’, BBC: Alaska Senate candidate denies knowing about alleged plot to put 2 Dan Sullivans on ballot, The Detroit News: El-Sayed, Rogers exchange barbs in final stretch of Senate campaign, NBC News: Alaska officials ask judge to deny Trump administration’s ‘impossible’ demand to set aside Senate ballots
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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3 Nov 2026
2026 Midterm General Elections
Voters go to the polls in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas to decide the Senate races on November 3, 2026, which will directly determine the outcome of this market.
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Before market resolution
Resolution by Major News Networks
The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have conclusively called the winners for all seven specified Senate seats.
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As votes are counted
Resolution of Legal Challenges to Alaska Ballots
State attorneys and officials are asking a judge to deny a demand by the Trump administration to set aside certain Senate ballots in Alaska, a ruling that could affect the certification and timeline of the race.
Source: PBS: Attorneys for Alaska say 'meritless' Trump demand to set aside Senate ballots 'not even possible', NBC News: Alaska officials ask judge to deny Trump administration’s ‘impossible’ demand to set aside Senate ballots
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Michigan Poll and Campaign News Impact Senate Market
A poll indicated that presidential approval in Michigan was among the worst ever recorded before midterms. Additionally, news coverage highlighted a boiling Senate race in the state, with escalating attacks on the Democratic candidate.
Sources: The Detroit News: Trump's Michigan approval among worst ever before midterms, poll finds, NBC News: Michigan Senate race reaches a boiling point
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Alaska Senate Race Developments
The market probability decreased following news about candidate affiliation and election administration in Alaska. Specifically, an article reported that Dan J. Sullivan switched from Republican to undeclared ahead of the general election, and another discussed the state seeking dismissal of a lawsuit regarding vote certification.
Sources: Alaska Beacon: Dan J. Sullivan switches from Republican to ‘undeclared’ ahead of general election, NewsCord: Alaska Seeks Dismissal Of Justice Department Suit Over Senate Race Vote Certification: how 16 outlets framed it
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Republicans win Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Michigan, and Texas, and lose Maine and Ohio”?
On 1 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 34 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 18% to 8%: Michigan Poll and Campaign News Impact Senate Market. A poll indicated that presidential approval in Michigan was among the worst ever recorded before midterms. Additionally, news coverage highlighted a boiling Senate race in the state, with escalating attacks on the Democratic candidate. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: 2026 Midterm General Elections (3 Nov 2026); Resolution by Major News Networks; Resolution of Legal Challenges to Alaska Ballots. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, both held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 3 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.