Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?

Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next

Yes at 4% on 5 Nov 2026, up 4 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 27 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This prediction market asks whether the Republican candidate wins the Senate election specifically in Alaska while losing the races in Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. The market relies on race results reported by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC to determine the outcome.

Following the November 3, 2026 elections, vote counts and analysis are underway across multiple states. In key contests, Democratic candidates have secured victories in states such as Ohio, where Sherrod Brown won, and Texas, where James Talarico defeated Ken Paxton.

Meanwhile, races in states like Alaska continue to be analyzed due to ranked-choice voting dynamics and ongoing vote tabulations. Official resolution requires conclusive calls from all designated major news sources.

Sources: Cleveland.com: How Sherrod Brown won the Ohio Senate race: A look behind the numbers, Alaska Beacon: Ranked choice voting may help Republican US Sen. Dan Sullivan, analysis finds, The New York Times: Alaska and Mississippi Senate Races: What We Know About Vote Counts and Result Timing, The New York Times: How Alaska Voted in the 2026 Election by Race, Gender, Age and Education, The New York Times: How Ohio Voted in the 2026 Election by Race, Gender, Age and Education, CBS News: Sen. Ted Cruz calls midterm outcome a "Watergate-level repudiation" as Democrat James Talarico wins Senate race, NBC News: Democrat James Talarico turns Texas Senate seat blue, defeating Ken Paxton, WSJ: Senate Election Results: Live Map of the 2026 Election

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 4 Nov 2026

    Democratic Gains in Texas and Ohio

    16% → 3%Likely cause

    News reports highlighted unexpected Democratic shifts and wins in states like Texas and Ohio during the 2026 midterms. These developments challenged the specific combination of outcomes required for the market's "Yes" resolution, causing the price to drop.

    Sources: BBC: How voter shifts in Texas helped elect a Democratic senator and governor, Austin American-Statesman: Who turned Texas blue? Explore which counties moved left in the Senate race, Cleveland.com: How Sherrod Brown won the Ohio Senate race: A look behind the numbers

    After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 4 Nov 2026

    Alaska Senate Race Remains Undecided

    5% → 14%Likely cause

    The chance of the specific outcome rose as reporting indicated the Alaska Senate race remained a tossup with many votes left to count. Early reports noted that the race was too close to call while other states showed strong Democratic showings.

    Sources: Alaska Beacon: Alaska’s US Senate race a tossup, with many absentee and early votes to be counted, Anchorage Daily News: Early results show Peltola and Sullivan in tight U.S. Senate race, WFTV: Election 2026: Alaska US Senate race too close to call

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.

  3. 28 Oct 2026

    Texas Senate Race and Political Shifts

    14% → 0%Likely cause

    The chance of Republicans winning only Alaska while losing several other targeted states dropped amid intense campaign activity and cross-party endorsements in states like Texas and Alaska. News coverage leading up to the shift highlighted high-profile rallies and political developments involving candidates in these key races.

    Sources: FOX 29 Philadelphia: Trump to rally support for Ken Paxton in hotly contested Texas senate race, FOX 9 Minneapolis-St. Paul: Trump campaigns in Texas as Senate race heats up, KSAT: President Trump visits Corpus Christi for Republican rally one week ahead of Election Day, Spectrum News: The final push for Texas' U.S. Senate candidates ahead of Election Day, FOX 10 Phoenix: Midterm elections: Trump campaigns in Texas Senate race, WTVG: Ohio’s US Senate race tops half-a-billion dollars in ad spending, FOX 7 Austin: Economy remains top issue as Talarico, Paxton remain locked in tight race, Fox News: Emotional Trump supporters fight back tears as Texas Senate race tightens, PBS: Libertarians could siphon Republican support in the fight for control of the U.S. Senate, Alaska Beacon: Murkowski and Murkowski endorse Alaska’s Democratic governor candidate, MS NOW: Lisa Murkowski crosses party lines to endorse Democrat in Alaska governor’s race, WSJ: Trump and Talarico Offer Texas Split Screen With Dueling Rallies Just Miles Apart

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

  4. 27 Oct 2026

    Texas Senate Race Tightens Before Midterms

    36% → 22%Likely cause

    The chance of Republicans winning Alaska while losing Texas and several other states dropped as news reports highlighted a remarkably close Senate race in Texas. Numerous articles detailed deadlocked polls, intensive campaign rallies by Donald Trump, and intense political spending in the traditionally red state.

    Sources: KUT: Trump visits Lubbock and Corpus Christi as Republicans fight to hold Texas’ U.S. Senate seat, Fox News: Trump won this reliably red state by double digits. Now a deadlocked race is bringing him back, WOAI: Trump, Talarico rally voters in Texas Senate race as midterm elections approach, MS NOW: Texas Senate race is neck-and-neck as final week of campaign begins, KSAT: Political ad blitz fills Texas airwaves, Click2Houston: Trump holds back-to-back Texas rallies ahead of midterms, Newsweek: James Talarico vs. Ken Paxton—What Texas Polls Show One Week Before Midterm

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Other markets in “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win? (Build Your Map)”

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Will Republicans win Alaska, and lose Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas”?

On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 4%, which means they saw about a 4 in 100 chance. That was up 4 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 16% to 3%: Democratic Gains in Texas and Ohio. News reports highlighted unexpected Democratic shifts and wins in states like Texas and Ohio during the 2026 midterms. These developments challenged the specific combination of outcomes required for the market's "Yes" resolution, causing the price to drop. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.