Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Yes at 15% on 30 Oct 2026, down 21 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 27 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Republican candidates will win the United States Senate general elections in Iowa and Kansas, while simultaneously losing the races in Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. The market will resolve based on official race outcomes called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC, with a final deadline of March 31, 2027.
With just days remaining until the November 3, 2026 midterm elections, campaigns are heavily focused on final mobilization efforts. Recent reporting highlights tight polling and competitive battles across multiple states.
Key campaign activities in the final stretch include upcoming weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas, alongside ongoing legal and investigative developments surrounding the Alaska Senate race.
Sources: NBC News: Trump uncancels weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas with Senate control at stake, WTXL ABC 27: Trump reverses course, will hold rallies in Kansas and Iowa after all, CBS News: Trump to hold rallies in Kansas and Iowa despite earlier cancelation, Reuters: Trump administration accelerates criminal probe into Alaska Senate race, NBC Palm Springs: DOJ Expands Investigation Into Alaska Senate Race as Midterm Campaigns Intensify
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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1 Nov 2026
Weekend Rallies in Iowa and Kansas
Donald Trump is scheduled to hold weekend campaign rallies in Iowa and Kansas to support Republican candidates, which could influence voter momentum in these crucial states.
Source: NBC News: Trump uncancels weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas with Senate control at stake, Little Village Magazine: Trump's Dubuque rally, canceled on Thursday, is back on; Ashley Hinson tries to sell herself to voters as 'bipartisan' to win Iowa's tight Senate race, CBS News: Trump to hold rallies in Kansas and Iowa despite earlier cancelation, WWNY: Trump to make final midterm stops in Iowa and Kansas Sunday
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3 Nov 2026
General Election Day
Voters go to the polls across Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas to decide the Senate general elections.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Senate forecasts and Kansas events drive prediction market
The chance of Republicans winning Iowa and Kansas while losing the other specified states increased as new midterm forecasts were released. Around the same time, reports highlighted rallies in Kansas where Republicans were fighting to preserve a Senate seat.
Sources: VoteHub: VoteHub’s 2026 Midterms Forecast, The New York Times: Election Dispatches: Trump Rallies in Kansas, Where Republicans Are Fighting to Preserve a Senate Seat
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Maine Poll Shows Democrat Jackson Ahead of Collins
The chance of Republicans losing Maine dropped as new poll results showed Democrat Jackson pulling ahead of Republican Susan Collins in the Senate race. Additional coverage highlighted tight races and polls showing Democratic leads in multiple key states.
Sources: CBS News: Jackson pulls ahead of Collins in Senate race, new Maine poll shows, Forbes: Midterm Races—Democrats Jackson, Talarico, El-Sayed Lead In Latest Polls (Updated Daily), CNN: Republican attack ads mocking Troy Jackson’s relationship roil Maine Senate race against Susan Collins
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Polls Show Trouble for Democrats in Senate Races
The price of the prediction market moved as reports analyzed a worst-case scenario for Democrats in the midterm elections. Additionally, new data and polling discussions highlighted changing dynamics in the Senate majority math for Republicans.
Sources: New York Magazine: The Worst-Case Midterm Scenario for Democrats, NBC News: The Data Dive: Steve Kornacki on the state that changes the Senate majority math for Republicans
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Senate Midterm Election Polls and Race Updates
Ahead of the upcoming election, media outlets and analysts published various reports discussing the competitive landscape of key Senate races and overall control of Congress. Articles highlighted shifting dynamics in the Senate map, early voting trends, and the strategic importance of specific states.
Sources: The New York Times: Democrats See a Rare but Fleeting Chance to Shake Up the Senate Map, The New York Times: Who’s Winning the Race for Congress?, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: These key Senate races will determine which party controls the body next year, USA Today: Democratic lead grows in race for House, but Senate is a dead heat, BigGo Finance: Nate Silver Puts Democrats at 75% for the Senate: Texas Is the Whole Ballgame, The New York Times: Election Day Is Next Week. What Can Early Voting Tell Us So Far?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Republicans win Iowa and Kansas, and lose Alaska, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 15%, which means they saw about a 15 in 100 chance. That was down 21 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 4% to 24%: Senate forecasts and Kansas events drive prediction market. The chance of Republicans winning Iowa and Kansas while losing the other specified states increased as new midterm forecasts were released. Around the same time, reports highlighted rallies in Kansas where Republicans were fighting to preserve a Senate seat. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Weekend Rallies in Iowa and Kansas (1 Nov 2026); General Election Day (3 Nov 2026). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 3 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.