Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas?
Yes at 15% on 30 Oct 2026, down 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 27 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Republicans will win the Senate election in Iowa while losing the races in Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas. It will resolve based on the official outcomes called by the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC.
As the election approaches, recent reporting highlights tightening polls and shifting campaign strategies across several key battlegrounds, including close contests in Texas and Iowa.
With the general election scheduled for November 3, 2026, candidates and party leadership are making their final pushes, including reinstated campaign rallies in states like Iowa and Kansas.
Sources: FOX 7 Austin: Paxton slips past Talarico in latest poll as Senate race enters final days, Crypto Briefing: Republicans accuse Peltola allies of name confusion tactic in Alaska Senate race, The New York Times: Democrats, Hopeful All Over the Senate Map, Remain Jittery About Iowa, Scripps News: Trump scraps Kansas campaign stop amid signs of trouble for Senate Republicans, The New York Times: Trump Cancels Rallies in Kansas and Iowa, NBC News: Trump uncancels weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas with Senate control at stake, The Washington Post: Locked in close Senate race, Iowa Republican pledges to be a thorn in Trump’s side
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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3 Nov 2026
General Election Day
The Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas take place on November 3, 2026, determining the winners in each state.
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Before March 31, 2027
Resolution Source Determinations
The Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC will conclusively determine the election results for all seven states by March 31, 2027, for the market to resolve.
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Leading up to the election
Weekend Campaign Rallies
Reinstated weekend rallies by political figures in Iowa and Kansas could influence voter turnout and shift poll numbers in those closely watched Senate races.
Source: The New York Times: Trump Cancels Rallies in Kansas and Iowa, NBC News: Trump uncancels weekend rallies in Iowa and Kansas with Senate control at stake, WTXL ABC 27: Trump reverses course, will hold rallies in Kansas and Iowa after all, Al Jazeera: US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump reinstates rallies
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Prior to November 3, 2026
Early Voting Tracking
Ongoing updates and analysis of early voting data across the battleground states could alter expectations for Republican candidates' performance.
Source: The New York Times: Tracking the Early Vote in the 2026 Midterm Elections
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Leading up to Election Day
Final Senate Battleground Polls
New polling data and election forecasts released in the final days before the election may cause fluctuations in the market odds for each specific state outcome.
Source: Silver Bulletin: FLIPR 2026 midterm election forecast, Silver Bulletin: FLIPR 2026 Senate forecast, The New York Times: Tracking Competitive Races in the House and Senate, The Times: Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictions, NBC News: 2026 Senate Battleground Polls: Midterm Primary Trends
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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27 Oct 2026
Republican Senate Odds Drop Amid Tough Polls and Headlines
The price for the Republican outcome dropped following reports of Democratic leads in key state polls and a prominent newspaper endorsement in Iowa. Additionally, headlines highlighted concerns about Republican support in Texas and soaring ad spending in Ohio.
Sources: Forbes: Midterm Races—Democrats Jackson, Talarico, El-Sayed Lead In Latest Polls (Updated Daily), NBC News: Could Trump be the Republican president to lose Texas?, Newsweek: Prominent Iowa Newspaper Endorses Josh Turek In Senate Race
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Senate Election Previews Highlight Key Races in Iowa and Beyond
As the midterm elections approach, news reports focused heavily on competitive Senate races and control of Congress across several states, including Iowa. Coverage detailed candidate line-ups and the broader national battleground shaping the balance of power in the Senate. No specific articles directly explain the exact percentage drop in this prediction market during the noted hours.
Sources: KCCI: Three candidates are in the race for Iowa’s US Senate seat, The Washington Post: Analysis | What to expect in next week’s midterm elections
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Republicans win Iowa, and lose Alaska, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 15%, which means they saw about a 15 in 100 chance. That was down 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 23% to 7%: Republican Senate Odds Drop Amid Tough Polls and Headlines. The price for the Republican outcome dropped following reports of Democratic leads in key state polls and a prominent newspaper endorsement in Iowa. Additionally, headlines highlighted concerns about Republican support in Texas and soaring ad spending in Ohio. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: General Election Day (3 Nov 2026); Resolution Source Determinations; Weekend Campaign Rallies. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, both held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 3 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.