Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?
Yes at 24% on 30 Oct 2026, down 13 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 27 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks which specific combination of seven U.S. Senate seats in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas will be won by Republican candidates in the 2026 midterm elections. The market resolves based on official race calls from the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC once all three outlets have conclusively determined the outcomes.
With the midterm elections just days away, both parties are fiercely competing across these battleground states, where Republicans are reportedly spending hundreds of millions of dollars to defend their Senate majority. Recent polls indicate tightening races and potential Democratic leads in several key states, including Texas and Kansas.
The general election is scheduled for November 3, 2026, with early voting currently underway. Major developments feature high-profile campaign stops by political figures like Donald Trump and Barack Obama, alongside intense focus on candidates such as Bernie Moreno and Abdul El-Sayed in Ohio's special election.
Sources: The New York Times: Obama Campaigns in Georgia as Trump Rallies in Ohio, MS NOW: GOP’s Moreno targets El-Sayed with a religious test that even many Republicans can’t pass, Yahoo: The 2026 midterms are just 5 days away. Which party has a better chance of winning? Here's what the latest polls say., Daily Mail: Trump's Senate majority under threat as stunning new poll shows Democrats leading in Texas and Republicans in danger in Kansas, Newsweek: Republicans Spending $694M to Stop Democrats in These 7 Key Senate Races, The New York Times: Tracking the Early Vote in the 2026 Midterm Elections, USA Today: Democrats open leads in four key Senate battlegrounds, CNN polls find, The Hill: Kansas, Maine Senate races neck-and-neck: CNN poll
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
-
3 Nov 2026
General Election Day
The United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas take place on November 3, 2026. The final outcome of these races will determine which seats are won by Republican candidates.
-
Any time before resolution
Final Pre-Election Polls and Tracking
Final polling updates and early voting tracking in competitive battlegrounds such as Kansas, Texas, Michigan, and Maine could shift expectations for individual Senate outcomes.
Source: Spectrum News: Poll shows Democrats gaining in Texas and Michigan Senate races; Maine and Kansas tight, Forbes: Latest Polls In 2026 Midterms: Democrat Adam Hamilton Ahead In Kansas Senate Race In 2 Polls, The New York Times: Tracking the Early Vote in the 2026 Midterm Elections
-
Any time before March 31, 2027
Official Race Call by Resolution Sources
The market will resolve once the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC have conclusively called all seven Senate races, provided results are determined by March 31, 2027.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
-
27 Oct 2026
Senate Election Odds Favor Democrats as GOP Defends Red States
Prediction market odds shifted as reports indicated that Democrats are favored while the GOP defends traditional red states. Articles published around this time analyzed the close Senate races and shifting control of Congress.
Sources: DeFi Rate: Senate Election Odds: Democrats Favored as GOP Defends Red States
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
27 Oct 2026
Polling Updates Impact Maine Senate Race Odds
Recent polling data showed candidates Jackson and Collins separated by only two points in the Maine Senate race. Another report noted that Democratic candidates were leading in the latest polls for midterm races.
Sources: AOL.com: Jackson, Collins separated by 2 points in Maine Senate race polling, Forbes: Midterm Races—Democrats Jackson, Talarico, El-Sayed Lead In Latest Polls (Updated Daily)
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
27 Oct 2026
Senate Race Ratings and Midterm Forecasts
As the midterm elections approached, various publications released updated predictions, race ratings, and polling data for the Senate contests. Analysts and outlets evaluated the state of the campaigns one week before Election Day.
Sources: 270toWin.com: Sabato's Crystal Ball 2026 Senate Race Ratings, Newsweek: Map Shows Donald Trump Approval Rating in Every State 1 Week Until Midterms, The New York Times: Video: Opinion | Nate Silver Predicts a ‘Momentous’ Midterm
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
27 Oct 2026
Senate Midterm Analysis Published Before Election
As the midterm elections approached, analysis from The Washington Post discussed expectations for the upcoming races. This reporting provided voters with insights into the state of the contests just days before Election Day.
Sources: The Washington Post: Analysis | What to expect in next week’s midterm elections
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Which Senate Swing States will Republicans win?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 24%, which means they saw about a 24 in 100 chance. That was down 13 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 30% to 22%: Senate Election Odds Favor Democrats as GOP Defends Red States. Prediction market odds shifted as reports indicated that Democrats are favored while the GOP defends traditional red states. Articles published around this time analyzed the close Senate races and shifting control of Congress. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: General Election Day (3 Nov 2026); Final Pre-Election Polls and Tracking; Official Race Call by Resolution Sources. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 3 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to which of the United States Senate general elections in Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio (special election), and Texas, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026, are won by the Republican candidate, inclusive of any potential runoffs. Each listed outcome names the exact set of these states in which the Republican candidate wins. An outcome will resolve to "Yes" only if the Republican candidate wins every state it names and does not win any of the other states covered by this market. A state counts as not won by the Republican candidate if any other candidate wins it, including a Democratic, independent, or third-party candidate, or if its results cannot be determined by March 31, 2027. A candidate will be considered to represent the Republican Party by their ballot-listed affiliation or if they are the nominee of the Republican Party. Candidates who run as independents will not be considered to represent the Republican Party regardless of any affiliation they may have with the party. The resolution source for this market is the Associated Press, Fox News, and NBC. This market will resolve once all three sources have conclusively called the relevant elections. If all three sources do not achieve consensus in calling the relevant races for this market, it will resolve based on the official certification.