Another Fed rate hike in 2026?
Yes at 78% on 29 Oct 2026, down 3 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 2 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will implement another rate hike in 2026. It resolves to "Yes" if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026, and the conclusion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, and otherwise resolves to "No".
Following recent decisions and guidance, the Federal Reserve has currently left interest rates steady, prompting markets and analysts to assess upcoming inflation data and economic strength. While the central bank recently kept rates unchanged, discussions and market analyses are actively weighing the possibility of a rate hike arriving as soon as December.
Key factors influencing the outlook include upcoming FOMC meetings and decisions, with particular attention on the scheduled December meeting concluding in early December 2026. The primary resolution source for the market will be the official Federal Reserve website.
Sources: Reuters: Why a Fed rate hike is likely coming in December, GK Today: US Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady, Northwest Arkansas Democrat-Gazette: Fed leaves interest rates unchanged, Bloomberg: Gold Edges Lower After Fed Holds Rates With Limited Guidance, BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027, Pittsburgh Post-Gazette: Federal Reserve keeps rates unchanged despite elevated inflation, Yahoo Finance: Mortgage and refinance interest rates today, Thursday, October 29, 2026: Rates change little on Fed decision day
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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December 2026 meeting
December FOMC Meeting and Rate Decision
The Federal Reserve is scheduled to hold its policy meeting in December 2026, where any decision to raise interest rates would cause the market to resolve to Yes.
Source: Mitrade: When Is the Next FOMC Meeting? FOMC Meeting Schedule 2026, BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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16 Oct 2026
Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Offers No Rate Signals
The probability of a rate hike in late 2026 declined after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at a conference without giving any fresh signals regarding the central bank's upcoming interest rate decisions. Traders responded by betting on an interest-rate hold.
Sources: New York Post: Traders bet on October interest-rate hold after Kevin Warsh is tight-lipped at conference, The Hill: Warsh offers no fresh signals on interest rates
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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2 Oct 2026
Fed Rate Hike Expectations Shift
The chance of another Federal Reserve rate hike dropped as markets weighed recent economic developments. Specifically, a Reuters report noted that U.S. job growth undershoots expectations in September while the labor market remains stable.
Sources: Reuters: US job growth undershoots expectations in September, but labor market remains stable
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Another Fed rate hike in 2026”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 78%, which means they saw about a 78 in 100 chance. That was down 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 16 Oct 2026, from 86% to 78%: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh Offers No Rate Signals. The probability of a rate hike in late 2026 declined after Federal Reserve Chair Kevin Warsh spoke at a conference without giving any fresh signals regarding the central bank's upcoming interest rate decisions. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: December FOMC Meeting and Rate Decision. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, both held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 10 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is increased at any point between September 17, 2026 and the completion of the Fed's December 2026 meeting, currently scheduled for December 8 to 9, 2026, inclusive of any rate hike announced as a result of the December meeting. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Any change to the target federal funds rate announced at the conclusion of the September 15 to 16, 2026 FOMC meeting will not count toward this market. Emergency rate hikes announced on or after September 17, 2026 will qualify. This market may not resolve to "No" until the Fed has released its rate change decision following its December meeting. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.