Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 92% on 6 Nov 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Anthropic or OpenAI will have the higher valuation on December 31, 2026. The market will resolve based on the final private market valuation reported by the Nasdaq Private Market, or by public market capitalization if either company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date.
Recent news indicates that Anthropic is facing major valuation pushback and skepticism from investors regarding its potential $1.5 trillion IPO amid an AI selloff and a broader tech rout. Reports suggest that Anthropic's valuation could potentially fall toward $1 trillion, with its IPO timing and roadmap facing increased uncertainty.
Sources: Finimize: Anthropic’s IPO Roadshow Is Running Into Valuation Pushback, The Globe and Mail: Anthropic’s IPO timing in doubt due to AI backlash, sources say, BigGo Finance: Anthropic IPO: Investors Push Back on $1.5 Trillion Valuation as 'Overpriced,' Listing Timeline Also in Doubt, New York Post: Anthropic’s IPO timing threatened by AI backlash, historic tech rout, Breakingthenews.net: Investors said to doubt Anthropic's valuation, PYMNTS.com: Anthropic IPO Faces $500 Billion Valuation Hit After Tech Stocks Plunge, Benzinga: Anthropic IPO Valuation Could Fall to $1 Trillion, May Delay: Report - Tema Photonics & Optical ETF (ARCA, Moneycontrol.com: Anthropic's $1.5 trillion IPO in trouble? Investors see valuation falling to $1 trillion after AI selloff, FXStreet: Could Anthropic delay its IPO as investors question valuation and AI risks?, WSJ: Exclusive | Major Investors Are Skeptical Anthropic IPO Can Achieve $1.5 Trillion Valuation, Seeking Alpha: Anthropic's $1.5T valuation under pressure as major investors signal skepticism, WSJ reports (ANT:Pending), Business Standard: Is Anthropic's mega IPO at risk over its $1.5 trillion valuation?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Anthropic vs OpenAI - higher valuation on December 31”?
On 6 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 92%, which means they saw about a 92 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 5 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to the listed company with the larger private market valuation, as measured by the final NPM Price reported by Nasdaq Private Market, LLC (NPM), for December 31, 2026. NPM Prices are published for trading days only and are updated once daily at 1:00 PM ET on the following calendar day. If NPM has not published relevant data for the specified date by 1:00 PM ET on January 1, 2027, this market may remain open until 11:59 PM ET on January 4, 2027. If no further data is released by that time, the market will resolve according to the latest available data. If NPM ceases publishing relevant data prior to the specified date, this market will resolve based on the NPM data published prior to the cessation of coverage, as well as applicable public market capitalization data following an IPO or direct listing. If a company completes an IPO or direct listing before the specified date, this market will resolve according to the company's public market capitalization at the market close of the specified date or the most recent trading day. Public market capitalization will be determined using the final official regular-hours trading price published for the company's primary listed common equity on its primary exchange for the specified date or the most recent trading day, multiplied by the company's total outstanding common shares at the relevant time. If a listed company merges with or acquires another entity and remains the parent company, no change to resolution methodology applies. If a listed company is acquired, merges into another entity and is no longer the surviving parent company, or otherwise ceases to exist as an independent entity prior to the end of the period, only the NPM valuation and applicable public market capitalization achieved prior to completion of the transaction will be considered for resolution. No transaction, acquisition, or merger consideration will be considered for resolution. The resolution source for this market is NPM data published here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-3e197763-4ff8-4d8c-bd1f-cc2792937757/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates) and here (https://fe.secondmarket.com/companies/company-30839e0b-2730-4495-839f-1bf638fa9cca/data?return_url=https://polymarket.com/finance/privates). The resolution source for any period following an IPO, direct listing, or relevant corporate action, will be official exchange trading data and publicly reported share counts. If Anthropic's valuation is equal to OpenAI's valuation at resolution, this market will resolve to 50-50. Revisions to previously published NPM data made after their initial release will not be considered, unless made to correct clearly erroneous data.