Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Yes at 98% on 29 Oct 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 6 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of England will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting. The market resolves based on the official statement and rate decision published by the Bank of England on November 5, 2026.
Following the release of the UK Budget, analysts are discussing how fiscal policy and ongoing inflation pressures will impact monetary decisions. Reports indicate that the UK Budget does little to immediately ease pressure on the Bank of England regarding potential interest rate hikes.
The crucial date to watch is November 5, 2026, when the Monetary Policy Committee announces its official verdict following the meeting.
Sources: Bloomberg.com: UK Budget Does Little to Ease Pressure on BOE for Rate Hikes, Financial Times: Bank of England able to take UK Budget in its stride despite slippage in deficit reduction, Equiti Global: UK Budget 2026: inflation, BoE rate hikes and gilt yields, Sky News: US makes interest rate decision - as Bank of England verdict looms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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6 Oct 2026
No Matching News Found for Bank of England Rates
None of the provided news articles discuss the Bank of England interest rate decision for November 2026. Therefore, no matching news was found to explain the price jump.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Bank of England decision in November?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 98%, which means they saw about a 98 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 6 Oct 2026, from 84% to 92%: No Matching News Found for Bank of England Rates. None of the provided news articles discuss the Bank of England interest rate decision for November 2026. Therefore, no matching news was found to explain the price jump. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 5 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.