Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Japan will increase its short-term policy interest rate by 25 basis points at its October 2026 meeting. The market will resolve based on the official statement released by the Bank of Japan, or credible consensus reporting, indicating the exact change in the policy rate.
As the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting is scheduled to run through October 30, 2026, recent reports indicate that the central bank is widely expected to hold rates steady this week. Commentary points to a hawkish hold as inflation reaches a long-awaited milestone and remains sticky.
Investors and markets are closely watching the decision while navigating competing pressures, including a weakening yen trading near the upper 157 to 158 range against the U.S. dollar and rising Japanese bond yields.
Sources: TradingView: Japan Inflation Accelerates: ETFs to Watch Amid Rate Uncertainty, BigGo Finance: Nikkei Briefly Up 1,040 Points but Closes 685 Higher; Chip Stocks Bought, Gains Capped Ahead of Fed and BOJ, The Economic Times: Global Market: Japan bond yields rise as investors eye BOJ policy meeting, The Japan Times: Bank of Japan unlikely to take rates higher this week, Admirals: Central Banks Week: Fed Decision Today, Then ECB and BoJ, Economies.com: Yen weakens toward 158 per dollar ahead of Fed and Bank of Japan decisions, Moomoo: [Today's Yen Outlook] USD/JPY may see nervous trading conditions, with the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled from today through tomorrow., Bloomberg: BOJ Set to Hold Rate as Inflation Reaches Long-Awaited Milestone, BigGo Finance: Tokyo FX: Yen Little Changed in Upper 157 Range as BOJ Meeting, US Rate Hike Expectations Pull in Opposite Directions, The Straits Times: Bank of Japan set to hold rate as inflation reaches long-awaited milestone, BigGo Finance: Dollar-Yen Struggles Near Upper 157 Range as Hawkish FOMC Read and Rising Japanese Yields Pull in Opposite Directions, Yahoo Finance: BOJ preview October: hawkish hold expected as inflation remains sticky, StoneX: USD/JPY and EUR/JPY: Diverging Setups Ahead of ECB and BOJ, www.tmgm.com: Japanese Yen flattens against US Dollar, BoJ policy takes centre stage, The Economic Times: Global Market: Japan bond yields steady ahead of BOJ policy decision
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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30 Oct 2026
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its Statement on Monetary Policy on October 30, 2026, which will officially confirm whether interest rates are increased by 25 basis points or held steady.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Bank of Japan Decision in October?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement (30 Oct 2026). Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.