Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting?

Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.

Data from Polymarket.

Context

This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Japan will increase its short-term policy interest rate by 50 basis points or more following its monetary policy meeting on October 30, 2026. The market will resolve based on the official Bank of Japan statement released during the meeting, using official data or credible reporting to determine the exact change in the upper bound of the interest rate.

Ahead of the decision, recent reports indicate that the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its current interest rate steady rather than implement a hike. While inflation has reached targeted milestones and remains sticky, analysts and market previews suggest a hawkish hold is more likely than an immediate rate increase this week.

The crucial date for resolution is October 30, 2026, when the Statement on Monetary Policy is scheduled for release. Market participants and traders are closely monitoring bond yields, currency movements involving the Japanese Yen, and upcoming central bank communications.

Sources: The Japan Times: Bank of Japan unlikely to take rates higher this week, Bloomberg: BOJ Set to Hold Rate as Inflation Reaches Long-Awaited Milestone, The Straits Times: Bank of Japan set to hold rate as inflation reaches long-awaited milestone, Yahoo Finance: BOJ preview October: hawkish hold expected as inflation remains sticky, The Economic Times: Global Market: Japan bond yields steady ahead of BOJ policy decision

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

No jumps detected for this market yet.

Other markets in “Bank of Japan Decision in October?”

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting”?

On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 30 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.