Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting?
Yes at 17% on 30 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 8 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Mexico will decrease its overnight interbank interest rate by 25 basis points following its November 2026 meeting. The market will resolve based on official data released by the central bank on November 5, 2026, comparing the new target rate to the level prior to the meeting.
Recent reports indicate that Mexico's third-quarter economic growth exceeded forecasts, expanding by 0.9 percent. This stronger-than-expected economic performance has cooled expectations and reduced pressure for an immediate interest rate cut by Banxico.
The crucial date to watch is November 5, 2026, when the Bank of Mexico is scheduled to release its monetary policy statement and official decision following its meeting.
Sources: Finimize: Mexico’s Q3 Growth Keeps Pressure On Banxico To Hold Rates, The Mighty 790 KFGO: Mexico’s economy slows less than expected in third quarter, Reuters: Mexico economy beats forecasts in third quarter, cooling rate-cut pressure, IndexBox: Mexico Q3 GDP Grows 0.9%, Beating Forecasts; Banxico Rate Cut Less Likely - News and Statistics
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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22 Oct 2026
Mexican Inflation Ticks Up Ahead of Banxico Meeting
The probability that the Bank of Mexico will decrease interest rates following its November meeting increased after financial reports discussed rising inflation in Mexico. Bloomberg and other financial outlets noted that inflation ticked up, influencing expectations regarding the central bank's upcoming rate decision.
Sources: Briefs Finance: Mexico Inflation Rises, Cuts in November Less Likely, Bloomberg.com: Mexico Inflation Ticks Up as Banxico Weighs Next Rate Move, Finimize: Mexico’s Inflation Picked Up, Even As Core Prices Cooled
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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21 Oct 2026
Citi Mexico Survey Suggests Banxico Will Hold Rates
The chance of the Bank of Mexico decreasing interest rates dropped after a Citi Mexico survey indicated that Banxico may hold rates at 6.50% through 2027. This survey lowered expectations for an interest rate decrease following the upcoming meeting.
Sources: www.tmgm.com: Banxico seen holding at 6.50% through 2027 – Citi Mexico Survey, www.tmgm.com: Citi Mexico Survey points to Banxico holding at 6.50% through 2027
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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20 Oct 2026
No News Found on Bank of Mexico Rates
None of the published news articles discuss the Bank of Mexico interest rate decision or monetary policy. Therefore, no matching news was found to explain the price jump.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
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8 Oct 2026
Banxico Board Members Leave Door Open to Rate Cuts
Minutes released from the Bank of Mexico showed that three of its board members left the door open to a future rate cut despite a previous rate hold. This discussion among board members around the time of the market move provided fresh context on potential future monetary policy easing.
Sources: www.tmgm.com: Banxico minutes flags upside inflation risks despite 6.50% rate hold, TradingView: Three of Banxico's board members leave door open to future rate cut - minutes
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Bank of Mexico Decision in November?”
- No change83%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Bank of Mexico decreases interest rates by 25 bps after November 2026 meeting”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 17%, which means they saw about a 17 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 22 Oct 2026, from 27% to 43%: Mexican Inflation Ticks Up Ahead of Banxico Meeting. The probability that the Bank of Mexico will decrease interest rates following its November meeting increased after financial reports discussed rising inflation in Mexico. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 5 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.