Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 3% on 4 Nov 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) will be passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026. It will resolve to "Yes" if this occurs, and "No" otherwise, based primarily on Congress.gov legislation tracking and official U.S. government sources.
Following the 2026 U.S. midterm elections, Democrats have swept control of both the House and the Senate, leaving the CLARITY Act stalled. Prediction markets like Kalshi have seen the odds for the bill dropping significantly, with some reports noting odds falling to 6% as the legislation faces an uncertain future ahead of potential lame-duck pushes and upcoming recesses.
The cryptocurrency industry heavily invested in the midterm elections, spending around $176 million as the fate of market-structure rules hung in the balance. Key factors now determining the bill's final outcome include the shifting legislative leverage in Congress and the limited time remaining before the end of the year.
Sources: Coinpaper: Crypto Industry Spends $176 Million on US Midterms as CLARITY Act Faces an Uncertain Future, TOKENPOST: CLARITY Act Stays Stalled, Leaving U.S. Crypto Market-Structure Rules Unresolved, BigGo Finance: US Midterms 2026: Crypto's CLARITY Act Hangs on Undecided Senate as Polls Close, CoinMarketCap: CLARITY Act Odds Fall to 31% With Senate Recess Days Away, The Defiant: Democrats Win Senate Control as CLARITY Act Remains Stalled, Disruption Banking: Democrats Sweep Congress as Kalshi Prices 6% Odds for CLARITY Act Before 2027, FinanceFeeds: Crypto’s CLARITY Act Faces Its Last Shot in a Lame-Duck Push
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 3%, which means they saw about a 3 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act of 2025 (H.R.3633) is passed by both chambers of the U.S. Congress and signed into law by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The primary resolution source is Congress.gov’s legislation tracker (https://www.congress.gov/bill/119th-congress/house-bill/3633) and other official information from the government of the United States, however other credible reporting may be used.