Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 26 to October 28, 2026?
4 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
We haven’t written context for this market yet.
What could move it next
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28 Oct 2026
Market Resolution
The market closes and resolves based on the final post count recorded on the Xtracker tool by 12:00 PM ET, determining whether the total falls within the 90-114 range.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Elon Musk tweet volume market rises amid active news
The prediction market for Elon Musk's tweet count rose between October 27 at 14:00 and 19:00 UTC. During this timeframe, several news articles reported on his social media activity, comments on AI, and business updates regarding Tesla and SpaceX.
Sources: Electrek: Musk declares Tesla Robotaxi win over Waymo, but Waymo still drives 7x more, Soap Central: Elon Musk calls James Talarico "far left extremist" after clip of latter talking about "neighbors with a uterus" goes viral, BASENOR - Tesla Accessories: Tesla Robotaxi Beach Expansion: Miami & Tampa Questions Answered, Cryptonews: Elon Musk’s Grok AI Predicts an Unbelievable XRP Price, Benzinga: If You Invested $1,000 in Tesla Stock When Elon Musk Acquired Twitter, Here’s How Much You’d Have Today, Gizmodo: Why Is a Giant Arm Appearing to Point X Users to Promote Whatever Tweets Are Called Now?, BASENOR - Tesla Accessories: Tesla Robotaxi Fleet Tops 1,000 in Texas as Cybercab Passes Model Y
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Elon Musk Tweet Volume Market Price Movement
Between October 26 and 27, 2026, multiple news articles were published regarding Elon Musk's business activities, including comments on AI companies and discussions about potential mergers. These developments coincided with a shift in the prediction market tracking his posting frequency on X.
Sources: Fortune: Elon Musk warns more than 200 AI cloud companies face 'guppy-level death' as the AI boom runs into a debt crisis, Moomoo: Tesla and SpaceX: Inside Musk's Potential $4 Trillion Megamerger, Yahoo: 'Live by the Sword, Die by the Sword': Elon Musk Warns Those Who 'Pick Fights' as Democrats Reportedly Weigh Probing Him After Midterms, International Business Times Australia: Elon Musk Says SpaceX-Tesla Merger Has Merit as Independent Committees Weigh Potential Deal
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Elon Musk tweet market increases following SpaceX news
The chance of Elon Musk posting between 90 and 114 tweets rose significantly between 13:00 and 18:00 UTC on October 26, 2026. This movement coincided with reports that SpaceX raised $40 billion in a debt deal and statements regarding a neocloud shakeout. Additional news covering his various business ventures and projects emerged during this timeframe as well.
Sources: Reuters: Musk says SpaceX raised $40 billion in debt deal, predicts neocloud shakeout
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 42% to 68%: Elon Musk tweet volume market rises amid active news. The prediction market for Elon Musk's tweet count rose between October 27 at 14:00 and 19:00 UTC. During this timeframe, several news articles reported on his social media activity, comments on AI, and business updates regarding Tesla and SpaceX. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution (28 Oct 2026). Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 26 12:00 PM ET to October 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 28 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the number of times Elon Musk (@elonmusk), posts on X from October 26 12:00 PM ET to October 28, 2026 12:00 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, only main feed posts, quote posts and reposts will count. Replies will NOT count towards the total - however, replies on the main feed such as https://x.com/elonmusk/status/1786073478711353576 will be counted by the tracker. Deleted posts will count as long as they remain available long enough to be captured by the tracker (~5 minutes). Community reposts which are not counted by the tracker not count toward the total. The resolution source for this market is the 'Post Counter' figure for posts found at https://xtracker.polymarket.com. Individual posts can be viewed by clicking "Export Data". If the tracker does not update correctly in accordance with the rules, X itself may be used as a secondary resolution source.