Fed emergency rate cut before 2027?
Yes at 4% on 31 Oct 2026, up 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Federal Reserve will hold an unscheduled emergency meeting and lower the upper bound of the federal funds rate before the end of 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if such an emergency rate cut happens between November 2025 and December 31, 2026, based on official Federal Reserve announcements or credible news reports.
Recent reports indicate that the Federal Reserve recently held interest rates steady at 3.75% to 4%. However, discussions among officials and incoming economic data have shifted focus toward potential future rate increases rather than cuts, with some policymakers signaling that further rate hikes may be needed to address ongoing inflation concerns.
Sources: Hardware Retailing: Federal Reserve Holds Interest Rates Steady at 3.75% to 4%, Reuters: New economic data challenges Fed chief's not-too-hot perspective, CNBC: Fed officials are already saying they’ll need to get back to hiking rates, Reuters: Fed needs at least two more rate hikes, Logan says, Barron's: Fed Officials Signal More Interest-Rate Increases Ahead, and Markets Believe It, Reuters: Fed officials make case for rate hikes amid ongoing inflation concerns
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Fed emergency rate cut before 2027”?
On 31 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 4%, which means they saw about a 4 in 100 chance. That was up 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) holds an emergency meeting after which the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is lowered between November 11, 2025 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". An emergency meeting is defined as any unscheduled meeting called by the Federal Reserve Board or the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) apart from the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2025 and the regular eight pre-scheduled meetings for 2026. The resolution source will be official announcements from the Federal Reserve’s website (federalreserve.gov) or credible news sources reporting on the emergency meeting.