Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting?
Yes at 3% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether the Federal Reserve will lower the upper bound of the target federal funds rate at any point up to the conclusion of the December 2026 FOMC meeting. It resolves to Yes if a rate cut happens by that time, including emergency cuts, and No if rates remain steady or are raised.
Following the Federal Reserve's decision to hold interest rates steady at its October 2026 meeting amid elevated inflation, the future rate path remains uncertain. While recent market commentary discusses the possibility of a December rate hike following dissents and persistent inflation concerns, some analysts also look ahead to potential rate cuts in 2027.
The upcoming and final scheduled FOMC meeting of 2026 is set for December 8-9, which will ultimately determine whether a rate cut occurs before the market's deadline.
Sources: ad-hoc-news.de: Silver Braces for PCE Inflation Print as Fed Hold Leaves Rate Risk Alive, CNBC: Dollar steady after Fed hold leaves rate path murky, The New York Times: Fed Meeting Live Updates: Interest Rates Hold Steady Despite 'Elevated' Inflation, Reuters: Why a Fed rate hike is likely coming in December, BigGo Finance: Bitcoin Holds Near $81K as Fed Stands Pat; Two Dissents Keep December Hike Alive, BusinessToday Malaysia: Bracing For December Fed Rate Hike, Morningstar: The Fed Kept Rates Steady in October, but We See Cuts in 2027
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Fed rate cut by December 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 3%, which means they saw about a 3 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 29 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the upper bound of the target federal funds rate is decreased at any point between December 16, 2025 and the completion of the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting for December 2026, currently scheduled for December 8-9. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. If no December meeting takes place by January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, and no qualifying rate cut has been announced, this market will resolve to "No". Emergency rate cuts will qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Federal Reserve (https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/openmarket.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.