France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026?
Yes at 7% on 28 Oct 2026, down 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 5 big jumps since 18 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether France will declare a formal state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 by December 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if such a legally binding decree enters into effect anywhere in the territory of the French Republic before the deadline, and No otherwise.
Widespread protests and student demonstrations have recently led to numerous arrests across France. While President Emmanuel Macron has stated that the government intends to maintain order without a state of emergency for now, he has noted that the option remains on the table depending on how the situation develops.
Sources: primetimer.com: Black Panther, Captain America appear at France protests as police make nearly 1,000 arrests, AOL.co.uk: Live: France will maintain order without state of emergency, but it’s not off the table, Macron says, France 24: France protests: Macron rules out state of emergency – for now
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Dec 2026
Market Resolution
The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on December 31, 2026, and will resolve to Yes if an official state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 enters into effect before then.
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Any time before December 31, 2026
Continuation of Student Protests
Ongoing student protests and mass mobilizations could escalate further, which could push President Emmanuel Macron to reconsider his stance and implement a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385, increasing the chances of a Yes outcome.
Source: GulfToday: Student protests rattle European governments, France 24: French student representatives hail govt's ‘concrete measures’, call for protests to continue, France 24: France protests: Macron rules out state of emergency – for now, World Socialist Web Site: Macron threatens a state of emergency against mass mobilization in France
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Any time before December 31, 2026
Government Measures to Maintain Order
If the French government successfully maintains public order and addresses student demands through alternative measures without invoking the 1955 law, the likelihood of a Yes resolution will decrease.
Source: France 24: French student representatives hail govt's ‘concrete measures’, call for protests to continue, AOL.co.uk: Live: France will maintain order without state of emergency, but it’s not off the table, Macron says, France 24: France protests: Macron rules out state of emergency – for now
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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26 Oct 2026
Macron Rules Out State of Emergency Amid Protests
The likelihood of a state of emergency in France decreased after reports confirmed that President Macron stated France will maintain order without a state of emergency for now, despite ongoing protests. Additional news coverage indicated that while the option was not completely off the table, the immediate prospect was ruled out.
Sources: AOL.co.uk: Live: France will maintain order without state of emergency, but it’s not off the table, Macron says, France 24: France protests: Macron rules out state of emergency – for now
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Protests and Legal Debates in France
The likelihood of a state of emergency increased following reports of ongoing student protests and political tensions surrounding government measures in France. Media outlets highlighted discussions about maintaining public order and potential responses to the unrest.
Sources: GulfToday: Student protests rattle European governments, The Guardian: Macron accused of putting France’s right to protest at risk with ‘vandal’s law’, Times Now: France’s 'Vandals Pay' Bill Would Make Protesters Pay for Damage They Did Not Cause, Irish Examiner: Macron accused of putting France’s right to protest at risk with 'vandals pay' law
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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20 Oct 2026
France Imposes Curfews and Weighs Emergency Measures
Amid violent unrest, protests, and curfews in Paris and other cities, reports emerged that France was weighing a state of emergency. However, subsequent updates indicated that the government was only responding to questions regarding emergency measures while utilizing night curfews instead.
Sources: Euronews.com: France to impose new curfews where 'situation requires it', PM says, Seoul Economic Daily: France Imposes Night Curfews in Paris, Weighs State of Emergency, 파이낸셜뉴스: Paris imposes a ‘night curfew’... Will France declare a state of emergency?, Haberler.com: Streets in France have turned into ruins! Government responds to state of emergency question
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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19 Oct 2026
French Prime Minister Does Not Rule Out Emergency Declaration
The chance of a state of emergency in France increased after the French prime minister stated that one could be declared if needed amidst ongoing unrest and curfews. Major news outlets reported that officials are considering the measure following a weekend of riots and thousands of arrests.
Sources: صوت الإمارات: Lecorno waves a declaration of emergency.. France is considering a curfew after violent protests, The Independent: Curfews in France amid fears of fresh violence – what we know, AFP.com: French PM says could declare state of emergency over unrest 'if needed', Demócrata: France imposes curfews in Paris and other cities after the disturbances and does not rule out a state of emergency., CBS News: France weighs a state of emergency and curfews after a weekend of riots and thousands of arrests, PressTV: France allows local curfews after protests, warns state of emergency remains an option, Report.az: Lecornu says state of emergency possible in France, Newswav: ‘We are the shame of Europe’: France imposes curfews to stop growing riots, Newswav: France protests latest: Curfews announced in Paris and Nice as PM won’t rule out declaring state of emergency, Reuters: France imposes curfews in parts of Paris, other cities after weekend of riots, Al Jazeera: France announces curfews in aftermath of violent protests, 조선일보: France Imposes Nighttime Curfews, Considers State of Emergency, The Times of Israel: France announces curfews in Paris and other cities as it grapples with violent unrest
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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18 Oct 2026
Macron Addresses Protests in France
French President Emmanuel Macron addressed the nation, stating that nothing justifies the violence seen during recent protests and denouncing nationwide rioting and looting. Following this address, the likelihood of a state of emergency being declared decreased.
Sources: France 24: Macron says 'nothing justifies' violence in protests during address to nation, Al Jazeera: ‘Anger and shame’: Macron denounces France’s nationwide rioting, looting
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “France declares state of emergency by December 31, 2026”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 7%, which means they saw about a 7 in 100 chance. That was down 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 18% to 8%: Macron Rules Out State of Emergency Amid Protests. The likelihood of a state of emergency in France decreased after reports confirmed that President Macron stated France will maintain order without a state of emergency for now, despite ongoing protests. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 5).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution (31 Dec 2026); Continuation of Student Protests; Government Measures to Maintain Order. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 5 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.