France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026?

Yes at 1% on 28 Oct 2026, down 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 18 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This market asks whether France will officially declare a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 by October 31, 2026. It will resolve to Yes if a legally binding decree establishing this specific status enters into effect by that date, and No otherwise.

Tensions and widespread protests have led to thousands of arrests and clashes involving student groups across the country. President Emmanuel Macron has stated that France will attempt to maintain order without an emergency decree for now, though he has not completely ruled out the option if unrest continues.

Sources: primetimer.com: Black Panther, Captain America appear at France protests as police make nearly 1,000 arrests, France 24: French student representatives hail govt's ‘concrete measures’, call for protests to continue, AOL.co.uk: Live: France will maintain order without state of emergency, but it’s not off the table, Macron says, France 24: France protests: Macron rules out state of emergency – for now, World Socialist Web Site: Macron threatens a state of emergency against mass mobilization in France

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

  1. 1 Nov 2026

    Market Close

    High impact

    The market closes at 11:59 PM ET on November 1, 2026, if no decree declaring a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 has entered into effect.

  2. Any time before October 31, 2026

    Escalation of Student and Public Protests

    High impact

    Continued mass mobilization and nearly 1,000 arrests in protests across France could pressure the government to reverse its stance and declare a state of emergency, pushing the chance of 'Yes' higher.

    Source: primetimer.com: Black Panther, Captain America appear at France protests as police make nearly 1,000 arrests, France 24: French student representatives hail govt's ‘concrete measures’, call for protests to continue, France 24: France protests: Macron rules out state of emergency – for now

  3. Any time before October 31, 2026

    Official Government Rejection of State of Emergency

    Medium impact

    President Emmanuel Macron stated that France will maintain order without a state of emergency for now, which keeps the likelihood of a 'Yes' outcome lower unless circumstances deteriorate further.

    Source: AOL.co.uk: Live: France will maintain order without state of emergency, but it’s not off the table, Macron says, France 24: France protests: Macron rules out state of emergency – for now

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Price jumps explained

  1. 18 Oct 2026

    Macron Addresses Protests in France

    18% → 6%Likely cause

    During an address to the nation, President Emmanuel Macron stated that nothing justifies the violence seen in recent protests and denounced the nationwide rioting and looting. Following his remarks, the prediction market adjusted the probability of a state of emergency declaration.

    Sources: France 24: Macron says 'nothing justifies' violence in protests during address to nation, Al Jazeera: ‘Anger and shame’: Macron denounces France’s nationwide rioting, looting

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “France declares state of emergency by October 31, 2026”?

On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Why did the odds move recently?

The latest explained move was on 18 Oct 2026, from 18% to 6%: Macron Addresses Protests in France. During an address to the nation, President Emmanuel Macron stated that nothing justifies the violence seen in recent protests and denounced the nationwide rioting and looting. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).

What could change the odds next?

Coming up: Market Close (1 Nov 2026); Escalation of Student and Public Protests; Official Government Rejection of State of Emergency. Details are under “What could move it next”.

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 1 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve to "Yes" if a legally binding decree declaring a state of emergency (état d'urgence) in France enters into effect at any point between this market's creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". To count toward resolution, the corresponding decree must explicitly constitute a "state of emergency" (état d'urgence) as defined by Law No. 55-385 of April 3, 1955 (Loi n° 55-385 du 3 avril 1955 relative à l'état d'urgence). Only declarations explicitly constituting a state of emergency under Law No. 55-385 will count. A declaration covering any part of the territory of the French Republic, including overseas departments, regions, and collectivities, will qualify. A declaration of a public health state of emergency (état d'urgence sanitaire) under the Public Health Code, a state of siege (état de siège) under Article 36 of the French Constitution, the use of exceptional powers under Article 16 of the French Constitution, the "Urgence attentat" level of the Vigipirate plan, a natural disaster declaration (état de catastrophe naturelle), or prefectoral orders issued outside of Law No. 55-385 will not count. The primary resolution source for this market will be the Journal Officiel de la République française (legifrance.gouv.fr); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.