Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026?
Yes at 6% on 30 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender all or part of its enriched uranium stockpile to an outside entity by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if such an official pledge or agreement is made before the deadline, regardless of when it actually goes into effect.
Diplomatic efforts are currently underway to avert a renewed conflict, with mediators like Qatar and Turkey facilitating talks between the U.S. and Iran. Reports indicate that a draft proposal under discussion includes potential nuclear limits, oil sanctions waivers, and asset releases, alongside warnings of possible military strikes if negotiations fail.
Key figures such as Donald Trump and JD Vance are involved in shaping the U.S. approach, while international bodies like the IAEA continue to pressure Iran for nuclear inspections.
Sources: Yeni Şafak English: IAEA urges Iran to grant nuclear inspectors immediate access, JFeed: US Warns Iran of Strike Unless It Hands Over Uranium, Al Arabiya English: Iran seeks to shorten peace plan to four days as mediators discuss Turkey meeting, samaa tv: Qatar leads US-Iran talks to avert renewed war, EnergyNow: Iran Says Draft US Deal Includes Oil Sanctions Waiver, Nuclear Limits and Asset Release, The Jerusalem Post: Donald Trump seeks stronger deal than Obama's to delay Iran strikes, The Guardian: JD Vance letter may offer last chance to avert fresh conflict between US and Iran
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 6%, which means they saw about a 6 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.