Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026?
Yes at 0% on 30 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Iran will publicly agree to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if an official pledge or agreement to transfer any portion of the stockpile outside of Iran's control is made by the deadline.
Current reports indicate that intense diplomatic efforts, mediated by Qatar, are underway to avert renewed conflict between the U.S. and Iran. While a draft U.S. deal reportedly discusses nuclear limits and sanctions relief, Iranian officials have expressed skepticism, and Washington continues to press for major concessions under the threat of potential military strikes.
Sources: Reuters: Iran sees only unacceptable ideas in latest mediation to end war, official says, Axios: Iran pressed to make nuke concessions as massive post-midterms strikes loom, X: 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 🇸🇦 Washington wants Iran’s enriched uranium out of the country... and Tehran won’t move without ironclad guarantees first. Past deals that fell apart have left Iran demanding binding commitments before it hands anything over, while Saudi Arabia, Qat, samaa tv: Qatar leads US-Iran talks to avert renewed war, EnergyNow: Iran Says Draft US Deal Includes Oil Sanctions Waiver, Nuclear Limits and Asset Release
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026”?
On 30 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile by October 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An official pledge by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile will qualify for a “Yes” resolution whether as a unilateral announcement or part of an agreement with the U.S. or Israel. An agreement by Iran to surrender any amount of its enriched uranium stockpile will count. To qualify, Iran must publicly agree that its enriched uranium stockpile, or any portion thereof, will be transferred, shipped, or placed under the custody or control of any entity outside of Iran and its influence, excluding non-state armed groups or Iranian-aligned organizations (such as Hezbollah, the Houthis, or similar actors). Any agreement or pledge made before the resolution date of this market will qualify, regardless of if/when the agreement goes into effect. An agreement by Iran to surrender its enriched uranium stockpile as a precondition of a more comprehensive peace process or deal will qualify, even if the agreement is not finalized or part of a formalized peace deal. Agreements to merely limit or cap the level or quality of enrichment—such as reducing enrichment to below weapons-grade thresholds—will not qualify. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.