Iran leadership change by December 31?
Yes at 14% on 29 Oct 2026, up 2 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto Supreme Leader of Iran by December 31, 2026. The market will resolve to "Yes" if he is removed from power, detained, resigns, or otherwise loses his position before the resolution date, based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent reports from late October 2026 show Iran's leadership engaging with security officials and addressing ongoing conflicts with the United States and regional powers. Articles note statements from the leadership regarding conditions to end the war and discussions over the Strait of Hormuz.
Key factors include escalating tensions and military costs involving the United States, alongside diplomatic outreach and international friction over memoranda of understanding and medical supplies.
Sources: Anadolu Ajansı: Iran’s supreme leader calls for meeting Tehran’s conditions to end war, Dhaka Tribune: Iran says supreme leader met with security chief over Hormuz, Reuters: Iran security chief meets Supreme Leader after talks with Mecca pact countries, Bloomberg.com: Iran’s Khamenei Reiterates Conditions for Ending War With US, Republic World: ‘Broken Commitments Cannot Be Excused’: Iran Hits Out At Trump Over 14-Point Islamabad MoU Remarks, Yahoo: Iran live updates: US military estimates war with Iran now costs $47.1 billion, UA.NEWS: President Trump approved Vice President Vance’s outreach to Iran on medical supplies — NDTV World
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Iran leadership change by December 31”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 14%, which means they saw about a 14 in 100 chance. That was up 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.