Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027?
Yes at 28% on 29 Oct 2026, up 5 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran by June 30, 2027. It resolves to "Yes" if he is removed from power, detained, resigns, or is otherwise prevented from acting as leader before the deadline based on credible reporting.
Recent reports indicate that Iran's leadership remains engaged in ongoing conflicts involving the United States and regional security concerns. Supreme Leader Khamenei has recently reiterated conditions for ending the war with the United States and urged national unity and security in the Strait of Hormuz.
Key factors surrounding the situation include regional conflict costs, potential war escalations, and calls from opposition figures like Reza Pahlavi for a transitional government plan. Analysts are also examining how the continuity of leadership in Iran might withstand ongoing pressures and conflict.
Sources: Bloomberg.com: Iran’s Khamenei Reiterates Conditions for Ending War With US, Time Magazine: How the War in Iran Could Escalate, Ahram Online: Iran's Khamenei urges unity, Hormuz security amid fears of renewed war - Region - World, SSBCrack: Iran’s Supreme Leader Calls for Resolution of Conflict Amid High-Stakes Regional Meeting, Vietnam.vn: Iran's Supreme Leader wants the US to meet conditions to end the conflict., Britannica: 2026 Iran war | Oil, Explained, United States, Israel, Strait of Hormuz, Map, & Conflict, ABNA English: Can the Death of a Leader End a Revolution? Scholar Highlights Continuity of Leadership in Iran, CubaHeadlines: Reza Pahlavi Calls for Iranians to Unite Against Islamic Republic and Unveils Transitional Government Plan, South China Morning Post: Why US allies in Middle East are accelerating direct talks with Iran, Federal News Network: Iran war’s cost to American taxpayers grows to an estimated $47.1 billion
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Iran leadership change by June 30, 2027”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 28%, which means they saw about a 28 in 100 chance. That was up 5 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jul 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.