Iran leadership change by November 30?
Yes at 7% on 2 Nov 2026, down 2 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran, will cease to be the de facto leader of Iran by November 30, 2026. It resolves to "Yes" if he is removed, detained, resigns, or otherwise loses his position before the deadline, based on credible reporting.
Recent reports indicate a mix of active diplomatic contacts and ongoing threats between the U.S. and Iran. While indirect talks and diplomatic efforts continue regarding a ceasefire and peace agreement, officials also report stalled diplomacy, threats of retaliation, and potential escalations.
Key figures mentioned in recent reports include Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei, who has reportedly granted the government some negotiating authority for peace talks, alongside U.S. and Israeli leadership dynamics.
Sources: New York Post: US and Iran resume 'very intensive' peace talks on ending war — as Trump threatens new strikes, Fox News: Iranian supreme leader responds to Trump rhetoric with new retaliation threat, Al Jazeera: Iran pushing accelerated plan for ceasefire talks with US, Reuters: Iran says contacts over ending war continue after talks finish with no breakthrough, Bloomberg.com: Iran’s Khamenei Gives Government Powers to Hold Talks on War, Bloomberg.com: Iran’s Supreme Leader Gives Go-Ahead for Peace Talks
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
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Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Iran leadership change by November 30”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 7%, which means they saw about a 7 in 100 chance. That was down 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.