Iran leadership change by October 31?
Yes at 0% on 29 Oct 2026, down 3 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Mojtaba Khamenei will cease to be the de facto Supreme Leader of Iran by October 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if he is removed, detained, resigns, or otherwise loses his position within the timeframe, based on a consensus of credible reporting.
Recent reports indicate that Iranian officials have pushed back against questions regarding the leadership, with Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf stating that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei is in full health and enthusiastic following a recent meeting.
Additional reports highlight Khamenei addressing conditions for ending the ongoing conflict with the United States and urging regional unity and security.
Sources: ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: Who is running Iran right now? Trump, security officials offer different accounts, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Iran's leader Mojtaba Khamenei in 'full health', says Ghalibaf, JFeed: Iran: Mojtaba Khamenei health fine, says parliament speaker, GlobalInfo.az: Qalibaf on meeting Khamenei: "This impressed me", UrduPoint: Mojtaba Khamenei Fully Healthy, Determined, Enthusiastic And Hopeful: Baqer Qalibaf, WANA News Agency: Ghalibaf Recounts Meeting with Iran’s Supreme Leader, Bloomberg.com: Iran’s Khamenei Reiterates Conditions for Ending War With US, Ahram Online: Iran's Khamenei urges unity, Hormuz security amid fears of renewed war - Region - World, The Straits Times: Iran’s Mojtaba Khamenei reiterates conditions for ending war with US
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Iran leadership change by October 31”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Supreme Leader of Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, ceases to be the de facto leader of Iran at any point between market creation and the listed date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Mojtaba Khamenei will be considered to no longer be the de facto leader of Iran if he is removed from power, is detained, or otherwise loses his position or is prevented from acting as the de facto leader of Iran within this market's timeframe. An official announcement of Mojtaba Khamenei’s resignation or removal will qualify for a "Yes" resolution regardless of when the announced departure goes into effect. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.