Military action against Saudi Oil Pipeline (East-West) by October 31?
16 big jumps since 7 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
We haven’t written context for this market yet.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
27 Oct 2026
Oil Prices Slip Following Tehran Summit Hopes
The chance of military action against the Saudi oil pipeline dropped as oil prices slipped following a Tehran summit that revived hopes for a U.S.-Iran breakthrough. Although Houthi strikes still capped losses, easing tensions contributed to the downward market movement.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
26 Oct 2026
Houthi Claims of Attacks Lower Market Odds
The chance of military action decreased after reports emerged that Houthi forces claimed attacks on the Saudi East-West oil pipeline and Riyadh airport. Articles from multiple news sources between 04:07 and 07:53 UTC highlighted these unverified claims from the group. Consequently, the prediction market adjusted downward as traders reacted to the reported statements.
Sources: Operativ Məlumat Mərkəzi: Houthis say they targeted Riyadh airport and Saudi oil pipeline, Fakti.bg: Houthis claim attack on Saudi oil pipeline ᐉ News from Fakti.bg - World, Türkiye Today: Houthis renew Riyadh airport, East-West pipeline attacks as Saudi coalition hits back, Cyprus Inform: Houthis report attacks on Saudi oil pumping stations and Riyadh airport, https://newsalert.com.pk/: Houthis Claim Attacks on Saudi Oil Facilities and Riyadh Airport, TRT World: Houthi militia targets Riyadh airport, Saudi-led coalition strikes Sanaa missile launchers, https://houseofsaud.com/: Houthis Claim Drone Attacks on East-West Pipeline Pumping Stations
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
25 Oct 2026
Houthi Attacks on Saudi Pipeline Raise Market Odds
The prediction market probability rose after reports that Yemen's Houthi rebels claimed strikes and operations targeting Saudi Arabia's oil pipeline and energy sites, including locations near Yanbu. These claims raised concerns about potential impacts on the East-West oil pipeline.
Sources: UrduPoint: Houthis Claim Attacks On 3 Saudi Airports, Aramco Facilities And Oil Pipeline, Announce 7 Military Operations, ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Houthis claim 'phases' of attacks on Saudi airports, oil pipelines, news.sbs.co.kr: Yemen's Houthi Rebels Claim Attacks on Riyadh Airport and Saudi Oil Pipeline, https://houseofsaud.com/: Houthis Claim Strikes on Rabigh Refinery and East-West Pipeline
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
-
25 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
24 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
23 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
17 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
-
16 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
16 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
-
14 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
-
13 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
12 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
-
11 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
-
10 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
-
10 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
-
7 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 24% to 14%: Oil Prices Slip Following Tehran Summit Hopes. The chance of military action against the Saudi oil pipeline dropped as oil prices slipped following a Tehran summit that revived hopes for a U.S.-Iran breakthrough. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 16).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 15 big jumps old enough to check, 8 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the East-West oil pipeline is targeted by a qualifying military action between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM Riyadh Time. Otherwise this market will resolve to “No.” The East-West oil pipeline refers to Saudi Arabia’s East-West crude oil pipeline (also known as Petroline), which carries crude oil from Saudi Arabia’s Eastern Province to the Red Sea port of Yanbu, including its pumping stations. A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike that impacts the East-West oil pipeline. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on the East-West oil pipeline do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. A military action will be considered to impact the East-West oil pipeline if it directly impacts the pipeline or any of its pumping stations. The occurrence and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Riyadh Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. If, at the end of the third calendar day, conflicting reports remain as to the occurrence or timing of the action, this market will resolve based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the government of Saudi Arabia and a consensus of credible reporting.