Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
Yes at 20% on 28 Oct 2026, down 21 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 29 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be Prime Minister of Israel before the end of 2026. It will resolve to "Yes" if he leaves office for any reason between market creation and January 1, 2027, based on official information or credible reporting.
As Israel awaits final election results, exit polls and ongoing vote counts indicate a tight race with neither the Likud-led bloc nor the opposition securing a clear majority of 61 seats. While the opposition has called on Netanyahu to resign and declared a harsh defeat for his bloc, votes counted so far show Netanyahu and his rivals jostling for victory and facing complex coalition talks.
Key figures in the election include Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and opposition contenders like Gadi Eisenkot, alongside figures such as Yair Lapid and Naftali Bennett. The final outcome remains uncertain as the nation waits for complete vote tallies and subsequent government formation efforts.
Sources: The Sunday Guardian: Israeli Elections Exit Polls: Will Netanyahu Remain Prime Minister or Can Gadi Eisenkot Form the Next Government as Both Camps Struggle to Secure 61 Seats?, blue News: Israel Has Voted — Opposition Calls on Netanyahu to Resign, International Business Times UK: Israel Election 2026: Yair Lapid Declares 'Total Collapse' After Netanyahu Bloc Suffers 'Harsh Defeat' in Exit Polls, Telangana Today: Israel election: Likud-led bloc takes lead, Netanyahu calls for ‘strong right-wing’ govt, Al Jazeera: Israel election results: No clear winner projected, what’s next?, The Guardian: Coalition talks loom as Israel exit polls suggest Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tied, The Jerusalem Post: Israeli election polling data: Bennett's B'Yachad projected to win 11 seats, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, The Australian: Benjamin Netanyahu, Gadi Eisenkot jostle for Israel election victory, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot, AP News: Results trickling in after Israel’s election shine a light on a complex political system, AP News: Israelis await final election results as Netanyahu remains far from defeated
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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1 Jan 2027
Market Resolution Deadline
The market resolves to Yes if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any reason before this date.
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As vote counting continues and final results are released
Final Election Results and Seat Counts
Continued vote counting will determine whether Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud-led bloc secures a governing majority or falls short, directly impacting the probability of his removal.
Source: JFeed: Netanyahu Bloc Holds 59 Seats in Partial Israel Vote Count, The Jewish Chronicle: Israel elections 2026 live: After 76% votes counted, Netanyahu bloc pulls ahead but without clear majority, The Jerusalem Post: With over 4 million votes counted, Benjamin Netanyahu pulls ahead of Gadi Eisenkot
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During upcoming coalition negotiations
Coalition Formation Talks
The success or failure of coalition talks between Netanyahu's bloc and rival factions will dictate whether he remains Prime Minister or is forced out.
Source: The Sunday Guardian: Israel Election 2026 Results Live: Exit Polls Show No Clear Winner As Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud and Gadi Eisenkot’s Bloc Face Coalition Deadlock, The Guardian: Coalition talks loom as Israel exit polls suggest Netanyahu and Eisenkot blocs tied
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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27 Oct 2026
Netanyahu's Fate Hangs in the Balance After Election
The chance of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office dropped following exit polls from the Israeli election. Several articles noted that there was no clear winner or mandate, while opposition figures declared victory and Netanyahu faced a rebuke from voters. However, reports also indicated that his opponents fell short of a majority and Netanyahu wrestled his rivals to a draw.
Sources: WWAYTV3: No clear winner in Israeli election, exit polls suggest, as Netanyahu’s fate hangs in the balance, Haaretz: 'We fired Bibi': Israel's Democrats hail historic opportunity to form coalition, New York Post: Netanyahu loses seats, trails challenger Gadi Eisenkot in Israel election, exit polls show — here’s what happens next, Irish Examiner: Voters deliver rebuke to Netanyahu but no clear winner in Israel’s election, Ynetnews: 'Netanyahu has lost': Bennett declares victory despite change bloc falling short of Knesset majority, SMH.com.au: Netanyahu has wrestled his opponents to a draw. For him, that’s a victory
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Sep 2026
Israeli opposition forms teams to oust Netanyahu
The chance of Netanyahu leaving office before the end of 2026 increased following reports that the Israeli opposition has formed joint teams in a bid to oust him. Additionally, discussions regarding term limits and election countdowns highlighted mounting political challenges he faces.
Sources: eurotopics.net: Countdown to Israeli election: will Netanyahu prevail?, Daily Sabah: Israeli opposition forms joint teams in bid to oust Netanyahu, The Jerusalem Post: After 19 years of Benjamin Netanyahu, is it time for Israel to adopt term limits?, Israel Today: Can September surprises topple Benjamin Netanyahu?
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Netanyahu out by end of 2026”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 20%, which means they saw about a 20 in 100 chance. That was down 21 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 27 Oct 2026, from 44% to 22%: Netanyahu's Fate Hangs in the Balance After Election. The chance of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office dropped following exit polls from the Israeli election. Several articles noted that there was no clear winner or mandate, while opposition figures declared victory and Netanyahu faced a rebuke from voters. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution Deadline (1 Jan 2027); Final Election Results and Seat Counts; Coalition Formation Talks. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.