Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 43% on 5 Nov 2026, up 4 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Benjamin Netanyahu will cease to be the Prime Minister of Israel before June 30, 2027. The market will resolve to "Yes" if he leaves office for any reason during this period, based on official information or credible reporting.
Israeli opposition leaders and Arab-Israeli politicians are currently intensifying efforts to unite and oust Netanyahu, boosted by political shifts including the Democratic sweep in the recent United States congressional midterm elections.
Key figures involved in the push to remove the prime minister include former army chief and opposition lawmakers, alongside Arab bloc leaders who have signaled an unprecedented willingness to form alliances to achieve a change in government.
Sources: Borneo Bulletin: Top Arab-Israeli leader says opposition must join to oust Netanyahu, 巴士的報: Israeli opposition leaders back former army chief in bid to oust Netanyahu, The Times of Israel: Laying out legislative plans, Eisenkot implies UTJ no longer in Netanyahu’s pocket, The Business Standard: Will the Arab Bloc back Eisenkot to oust Netanyahu?, Reuters: Netanyahu rivals seize on Democrats' sweep of US Congress, seeking his ouster, AP News: Arab Party Leader open to alliance with Jewish parties to oust Netanyahu, Khaama Press: Netanyahu’s Rivals Use Democratic US Election Victory to Push for His Ouster, The Siasat Daily: Israel’s Arab bloc ready to break precedent to oust Netanyahu
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Israeli Election Exit Polls Show Deadlock
Exit polls from the Israeli election indicated an electoral deadlock with no clear winner or path to power, contrasting with earlier expectations of an ouster. As a result, the market's assessment of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office dropped significantly.
Sources: Japan Today: Israeli exit polls show election deadlock, no clear path to power, PBS: No clear winner in Israeli election, exit polls indicate, as Netanyahu's fate hangs in the balance
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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27 Oct 2026
Netanyahu's Future Unclear After Election
The price of the prediction market shifted as exit polls and partial results indicated an election deadlock with no clear winner in Israel. While opposition figures claimed the public voted to remove Netanyahu from office, reports noted that he was far from defeated and his political fate remained in the balance.
Sources: The Guardian: Israel election too close to call as exit polls give Netanyahu bloc slightly fewer seats, Al Jazeera: Partial results show no clear winner in Israel election, AP News: Exit polls suggest no clear winner in Israel’s election, but Netanyahu is far from defeated, Japan Today: Israeli exit polls show election deadlock, no clear path to power, PBS: No clear winner in Israeli election, exit polls indicate, as Netanyahu's fate hangs in the balance
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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27 Oct 2026
Netanyahu Faces Election as Voters Go to Polls
The chance of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office rose as Israel's election day arrived amid high stakes from the conflict with Iran. Reports also highlighted ongoing political challenges, including organized efforts by expats to vote and potential electoral competition.
Sources: WSJ: The Push to Oust Netanyahu Draws Thousands of Israeli Expats Home to Vote, The Washington Post: Netanyahu, with Trump’s backing, could lose election and still lead a divided Israel, Gulf News: Israel votes today: Can Netanyahu survive election as Iran war raises stakes?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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26 Oct 2026
Benjamin Netanyahu's Political Future on Prediction Market
The prediction market saw a significant shift regarding Benjamin Netanyahu remaining in office. None of the provided articles explain this specific price movement. Therefore, no matching news was found to confirm the cause.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Netanyahu out by...?”
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Netanyahu out by June 30, 2027”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 43%, which means they saw about a 43 in 100 chance. That was up 4 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 65% to 33%: Israeli Election Exit Polls Show Deadlock. Exit polls from the Israeli election indicated an electoral deadlock with no clear winner or path to power, contrasting with earlier expectations of an ouster. As a result, the market's assessment of Benjamin Netanyahu leaving office dropped significantly. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jul 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Benjamin Netanyahu ceases to be Prime Minister of Israel for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Benjamin Netanyahu's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Benjamin Netanyahu and the government of Israel; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.