Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026?
Yes at 29% on 2 Nov 2026, up 6 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 29 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the United States and Iran will hold a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026. It will resolve to Yes if official representatives authorized to engage in diplomacy meet for that purpose.
Diplomatic efforts are currently underway as oil prices react to hopes of upcoming talks and peace proposals circulate through mediators in Doha and regional capitals.
Iranian officials, including President Pezeshkian, have indicated that the supreme leader has granted the government certain authorities regarding peace talks, while U.S. and Iranian plans for discussions continue to impact global markets.
Sources: Latin Times: Rubio Says Trump Hasn't Decided on Iran Strikes as Rezaei Warns of 'New Weaponry' and Tehran Heads to Doha, TradingKey: WTI Crude Pulls Back From Highs Near $100 as US and Iran Plan Talks, Risking 20% Correction, CNBC: Crude oil prices sell off more than 7% on Iran peace talk hopes ahead of U.S. midterms, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Iran Negotiators Leave Qatar As Draft Proposal To End War Circulates, The Times of India: Iran's supreme leader gave government 'certain authorities' over peace talks with US: Pezeshkian
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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1 Nov 2026
Iran Rules Out Direct Talks With the US
The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting dropped after reports emerged that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi ruled out a meeting with the US despite acknowledging outreach. Additional statements from officials regarding persistent demands blocking talks and warnings of potential military strikes further dampened expectations for near-term negotiations.
Sources: The Jerusalem Post: Araghchi says Vance's letter could open door to talks, rules out meeting with US, The National: Rubio says Trump set no timeframe for Iran talks but military option remains open, Iran International: Iran says US tone shifts but demands still block talks
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
Iran Has Not Responded to US Talks Offer
Reports indicated that Iran had received a letter from US officials proposing talks, but had not yet responded to the offer. This lack of a positive response contributed to a decrease in the likelihood of a meeting.
Sources: chinadailyhk: Report: Iran received Vance's letter on talks, hasn't responded yet
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by...?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Next US-Iran senior diplomatic meeting by November 30, 2026”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 29%, which means they saw about a 29 in 100 chance. That was up 6 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 1 Nov 2026, from 36% to 26%: Iran Rules Out Direct Talks With the US. The probability of a US-Iran diplomatic meeting dropped after reports emerged that Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi ruled out a meeting with the US despite acknowledging outreach. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
On September 22, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner met Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi on the sidelines of the UN General Assembly in New York, with President Trump saying another meeting is scheduled in the near future.(see: https://www.israelhayom.com/2026/09/22/witkoff-kushner-attended-us-iran-meeting-another-expected-soon). This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a direct or indirect senior-level diplomatic meeting between the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting occurs when representatives of both listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in diplomacy on behalf of their respective governments or governing authorities deliberately meet for the purpose of diplomacy or negotiation. A qualifying meeting need not result in any agreement, joint statement, or further engagement. A diplomatic meeting is senior-level if each listed entity is represented by a head of state, a head of government, or a vice president; a foreign minister; a minister of cabinet rank; the secretary or head of a national security council; the presiding officer of a national legislature; a special envoy; or another individual designated by the head of state or head of government to conduct diplomatic negotiations on their behalf. Individuals authorized only for technical, implementation, monitoring, staff-level, preparatory, or working-group-level talks will not be considered designated to conduct diplomatic negotiations on behalf of the head of state or head of government. This definition includes, but is not limited to, all of the following individuals: for the United States, Donald Trump, JD Vance, Marco Rubio, Scott Bessent, Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner; and for Iran, Mojtaba Khamenei, Masoud Pezeshkian, Abbas Araghchi and Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. In each case, a qualifying representative must participate in the meeting. A direct meeting refers to a diplomatic meeting where the representatives of both countries directly interact with each other in person. Meetings conducted through translators qualify, provided direct, face-to-face communication occurs. An indirect meeting refers to a meeting conducted indirectly through designated mediators or facilitators. A qualifying indirect meeting must meet both of the following criteria (i) the designated intermediaries act with the knowledge and authorization of both entities; (ii) representatives of both entities are physically present in the same facility, venue, or city as part of a single organized round of talks convened for the purpose of diplomatic engagement, with the intermediary conveying communications between the representatives or delegations on the same day. “The same day” means the same calendar day local time at the meeting location. Sessions, proceedings, or convenings of standing international organizations, treaty bodies, or recurring multilateral summits or conferences (e.g., the United Nations General Assembly, G7, and G20 summits) do not qualify, unless a qualifying and deliberate diplomatic meeting between representatives of the listed countries is separately held alongside such a convening. The following do not qualify as either a direct or indirect diplomatic meeting: chance encounters; standalone exchanges limited to greetings, courtesies, or photo opportunities; meetings conducted remotely, by telephone, or by any other means where the relevant representatives are not physically present at the same facility, venue, or city on the same day; discussions involving persons not authorized to engage in diplomacy or negotiation on behalf of their respective governments. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.