No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Yes at 1% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 6 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the Bank of England will leave its interest rates unchanged following its Monetary Policy Committee meeting on November 5, 2026. It resolves based on official announcements from the Bank of England regarding any change in basis points relative to the rate prior to the meeting.
Recent news and commentary indicate that the UK Budget has left pressure on the Bank of England regarding potential rate hikes or adjustments, while international factors such as Middle East energy shocks continue to present inflation risks. Speculation persists around whether policymakers will hold or adjust rates as the verdict looms.
The crucial date to watch is November 5, 2026, when the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee is scheduled to release its official statement and decision.
Sources: Bloomberg.com: UK Budget Does Little to Ease Pressure on BOE for Rate Hikes, Anadolu Ajansı: Middle East energy shock puts upward pressure on inflation, UK chancellor says, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Middle East conflict raises UK inflation risks, chancellor warns, Sky News: US makes interest rate decision - as Bank of England verdict looms, MKFM: US Federal Reserve holds interest rates - ahead of possible Bank of England hike
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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6 Oct 2026
Bank of England official warns of entrenched high inflation
The chance of no interest rate change decreased after Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann warned that high inflation has become embedded in the United Kingdom. She also noted that inflation could potentially reach 4% around the turn of the year. Articles from Reuters, Sharecast.com, and Investing.com reported these inflation warnings.
Sources: Reuters: High inflation has become embedded in Britain, Bank of England's Mann says, Sharecast.com: BoE's Mann warns UK inflation could become further entrenched, London South East: PRESS: UK inflation set to hit 4% around turn of year - BoE's Mann | Financial News, BigGo Finance: BOE's Mann Warns of Entrenched High Inflation, Sees Risk of 4% Around Year-End, Investing.com: Bank of England’s Mann says high inflation has become embedded in UK By Reuters, Breakingthenews.net: BoE's Mann: Inflation has become embedded
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Bank of England decision in November?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 1%, which means they saw about a 1 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 6 Oct 2026, from 16% to 6%: Bank of England official warns of entrenched high inflation. The chance of no interest rate change decreased after Bank of England policymaker Catherine Mann warned that high inflation has become embedded in the United Kingdom. She also noted that inflation could potentially reach 4% around the turn of the year. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 5 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the Bank Rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of England’s Monetary Policy Committee, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of England, including the statement or release from its November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of England calendar (https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/monetary-policy/upcoming-mpc-dates). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of England's November 2026 Monetary Policy Committee meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.