No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?
Yes at 100% on 29 Oct 2026, up 2 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Japan will change its short-term policy interest rate following its October 2026 meeting. It will resolve based on the official basis point change announced in the Bank of Japan's Statement on Monetary Policy.
As of late October 2026, financial markets and news reports indicate that the Bank of Japan is widely expected to hold its interest rates steady. Meanwhile, the Japanese Yen has been trading in the upper 157 range against the US dollar ahead of the decision.
The policy decision and accompanying statement are scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026. Analysts note that inflation reaching a long-awaited milestone is a key factor supporting expectations for a hawkish hold.
Sources: Moomoo: [Today's Yen Outlook] USD/JPY may see nervous trading conditions, with the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy Meeting scheduled from today through tomorrow., Bloomberg: BOJ Set to Hold Rate as Inflation Reaches Long-Awaited Milestone, FXStreet: Tokyo CPI and a BoJ decision end a central bank week for the Yen, BigGo Finance: Tokyo FX: Yen Little Changed in Upper 157 Range as BOJ Meeting, US Rate Hike Expectations Pull in Opposite Directions, The Straits Times: Bank of Japan set to hold rate as inflation reaches long-awaited milestone, Investing.com Australia: BOJ preview October: hawkish hold expected as inflation remains sticky By Investing.com, FXStreet: ECB, BoJ expected to remain hawkishly on hold, The Economic Times: Global Market: Japan bond yields steady ahead of BOJ policy decision
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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30 Oct 2026
Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement
The Bank of Japan is scheduled to release its Monetary Policy Meeting statement and decision on October 30, 2026. A decision to keep interest rates unchanged would resolve the market to 'Yes', while any unexpected rate change would resolve it otherwise.
Source: Bloomberg.com: BOJ Set to Hold Rate as Inflation Reaches Long-Awaited Milestone, FXStreet: Tokyo CPI and a BoJ decision end a central bank week for the Yen, Yahoo Finance: BOJ preview October: hawkish hold expected as inflation remains sticky
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Other markets in “Bank of Japan Decision in October?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the October 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 100%, which means they saw about a 100 in 100 chance. That was up 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Bank of Japan Monetary Policy Statement (30 Oct 2026). Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 30 Oct 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
The Statement on Monetary Policy for the Bank of Japan's Monetary Policy meeting for October is scheduled to be released on October 30, 2026 (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm). This market will resolve to the amount of basis points the upper bound of the short-term policy interest rate is changed by versus the level it was prior to the Bank of Japan's October 2026 meeting. If the short-term policy interest rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded up to the nearest 25 and will resolve to the relevant bracket. (e.g. if there's a cut/increase of 12.5 bps it will be considered to be 25 bps) The primary resolution source for this market will be the official website of the Bank of Japan (https://www.boj.or.jp/en/mopo/mpmsche_minu/index.htm), however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used. This market may resolve as soon as the Bank of Japan's statement for the specified meeting with relevant data is issued. If no statement is released by the end date of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No change" bracket.