No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting?
Yes at 82% on 29 Oct 2026, up 13 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 29 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Bank of Mexico will keep its target interest rate unchanged following its November 2026 meeting. The market resolves based on the official rate change in basis points announced by the bank, using its official schedule and release documents.
Recent reports highlight ongoing currency movements involving the Mexican Peso and the USD/MXN exchange rate, as markets navigate economic pressures and carry trade unwinding. Meanwhile, international central banks continue adjusting or holding their monetary policy rates.
The official decision from the Bank of Mexico is scheduled for November 5, 2026.
Sources: www.tmgm.com: 18.60 reclaimed by USD/MXN as carry trade unwinding weighs on Mexican Peso, www.tmgm.com: USD/MXN regains 18.60 as carry trade unwinding weighs on Mexican Peso, www.tmgm.com: Mexican Peso: Downside against US Dollar viewed as limited – Commerzbank, TradingKey: USD/MXN (USDMXN) Surges 0.54% on Oct 29: What Does the Market Value?
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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21 Oct 2026
Banxico Expected to Hold Rates According to Survey
The chance of no interest rate change increased following reports that Banxico is expected to hold rates at 6.50% through 2027 based on a Citi Mexico survey. Additionally, analysts noted that central bank expectations were shifting as the USD/MXN moved sharply.
Sources: TradingKey: USD/MXN (USDMXN) Moved Sharply on Oct 21: Are Central Bank Expectations Shifting?, www.tmgm.com: Banxico seen holding at 6.50% through 2027 – Citi Mexico Survey
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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20 Oct 2026
Mexican Peso Exchange Rate Movement
The USD/MXN currency pair rose by 0.50% on October 20, as reported by financial news sources. This macroeconomic shift occurred around the time the prediction market probability saw a notable change. No other specific monetary policy decisions from the Bank of Mexico were cited during this timeframe.
Sources: TradingKey: USD/MXN (USDMXN) Is up 0.50% on Oct 20: What Signals Does the Macro Data Send?
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
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8 Oct 2026
Mexican Inflation Ticks Up As Peso Dives
The chance of no interest rate change fell after reports showed Mexico's inflation ticked up in September while the Mexican peso dropped due to solid US data. These economic signals caused shifts in expectations regarding the upcoming Bank of Mexico meeting.
Sources: Bloomberg.com: Mexico Inflation Ticks Up in September as Banxico Weighs Options, www.tmgm.com: Mexican Peso dives on solid US data, despite high inflation
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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29 Sep 2026
Bank of Mexico Rate Path Independence
The chance of no interest rate change increased after the Bank of Mexico governor stated that the central bank can chart its rate path independently of the Federal Reserve. This statement provides insight into future monetary policy decisions.
Sources: Bloomberg.com: Banxico Can Chart Rate Path Independently of Fed, Governor Says
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “No change in Bank of Mexico’s interest rates after November 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 82%, which means they saw about a 82 in 100 chance. That was up 13 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 21 Oct 2026, from 52% to 69%: Banxico Expected to Hold Rates According to Survey. The chance of no interest rate change increased following reports that Banxico is expected to hold rates at 6.50% through 2027 based on a Citi Mexico survey. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 3 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 5 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the target for the overnight interbank interest rate resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Bank of Mexico, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Bank of Mexico, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 5, 2026, as listed on the official Bank of Mexico calendar (https://www.banxico.org.mx/viewers2/JSP/calendarioDifusion_es.jsp). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Bank of Mexico resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of “Increase” or “Decrease” will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the “No Change” bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.