No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting?
Yes at 14% on 29 Oct 2026, down 20 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 21 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will keep its interest rates unchanged at its upcoming meeting, resolving based on the official RBA announcement scheduled for November 2 to November 3, 2026. The outcome depends on the net change in basis points of the cash rate target compared to its level prior to the meeting.
Recent reports indicate that hot inflation figures have significantly increased the pressure on the central bank, with major banks and traders anticipating a rate hike at the November meeting. Financial analysts and media sources note that persistent inflation has raised the odds of a rate increase.
The upcoming monetary policy decision will be announced during the RBA meeting on November 2-3, 2026, coinciding with market discussions surrounding potential mortgage impacts and broader economic conditions.
Sources: News24: US Federal Reserve hits pause on rates as Aussies brace for fresh mortgage pain, SmartCompany: RBA tipped to hike interest rates in November after “ugly” inflation result, Forbes: Australia Inflation Rises Yet Again Stoking Rate Hike Pressure, Kalkine Media: Why Did Australian Shares Pare Gains as a Reserve Bank Rate Rise Looms?, News.com.au: Big four banks tip Melbourne Cup rate hike, FXStreet: Australian Dollar edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds, شبكة تواصل الإخبارية: Australian Dollar edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds | FXStreet, The Conversation: Mortgage holders aren’t alone in paying for rate hikes. Here’s how the RBA spreads the pain, Ticker News: RBA rate decision: Could one move shake Australia’s stock market?, Market Index: RBA set to inflict fifth interest rate hike on Cup Day, number six is now a 50-50 bet, Elite Agent: Should mortgage holders carry the whole inflation burden?, WSJ: RBA’s Blunt Messaging Raises Questions About Peak in Rates, Ticker News: RBA likely to raise rates next week and next month, www.tmgm.com: Australian Dollar: Persistent inflation may prompt another RBA rate hike - Standard Chartered, Bloomberg: Traders Brace for More RBA Rate Hikes
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Australia Inflation Jumps, Raising Rate Hike Expectations
The chance of no interest rate change fell after a hot inflation print was released in Australia. Multiple reports indicated that higher inflation figures intensified pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates at its upcoming meeting.
Sources: The Courier Mail: Fifth rate hike looms as inflation nightmare deepens, Allora! Italian Australian News: RBA Sees No Near-Term Recession as Michele Bullock Warns Inflation Is “Far Too High”, AFR: Back-to-back rate rises on the cards after hot inflation print, Australian Conveyancer: CBA expects RBA to raise cash rate to 4.85 per cent, https://streamlinefeed.co.ke/: Australian inflation jumps to 4.3 per cent, intensifying pressure for Reserve Bank rate rise, Real Estate: November RBA rate hike likely locked in as high inflation lingers, Australian Broker: Inflation still too hot to handle, AFR: Inflation spike pushes RBA on rates, Chalmers on spending cuts
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
RBA Rate Hike Expectations Shift
The chance of no change in RBA interest rates moved as market commentary increasingly pointed toward an expected rate hike in November. Economic analysis and reports published during the period highlighted persistent inflation pressures pushing the Reserve Bank of Australia toward raising rates.
Sources: Westpac IQ: Rate call: RBA to hike in November, as inflation remains too high, https://aapnews.aap.com.au/: November rate hike a lock after 'ugly' inflation result
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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22 Oct 2026
Rate Hike Odds Rise Following RBA Warning
The chance of no interest rate change dropped after several reports indicated that the Reserve Bank of Australia warned of a worsening inflation outlook. News outlets noted that odds for a rate rise doubled and traders weighed higher cash rates following the RBA's warnings.
Sources: Proactive Investors Australia: November rate hike odds jump as RBA warns inflation outlook has worsened, Yahoo Finance Australia: ‘Doesn’t look good’: Grim new rates era, The Australian: Interest rate rise odds double after RBA spooks market, The Australian: RBA softens ground for Melbourne Cup Day interest rate hike, Ticker News: ‘Hope is not a strategy’: RBA’s inflation challenge, Neos Kosmos: RBA: Difficult decisions on interest rates, Australian Broker: RBA rate hike fears reignite as inflation outlook worsens, AFR: Traders weigh cash rate above 5pc after RBA’s warning shot, AFR: Why five-year-high unemployment won’t stop another RBA rate rise
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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21 Oct 2026
RBA Warns of Worse Inflation Outlook
The chance of no rate change fell after Reserve Bank of Australia officials warned that the inflation outlook had worsened significantly. This commentary led markets to sharply increase expectations of a potential rate hike at the November meeting.
Sources: Real Estate: RBA hints at more rate hikes flagging unravelling public trust concerns, UA.NEWS: Reserve Bank of Australia deputy governor says inflation outlook has worsened — ABC News, Bloomberg.com: RBA’s Hauser Says Australia Inflation Outlook ‘Materially Worse’, Switzer Daily: RBA faces ‘nightmare’ inflation challenge, foreshadows Cup Day rate hike, News24: RBA warns Australia’s inflation outlook is ‘materially worse’ than expected, Yahoo Finance: RBA Nov rate hike bets surge to over 50% after Hauser warning on inflation
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the November 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 14%, which means they saw about a 14 in 100 chance. That was down 20 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 40% to 4%: Australia Inflation Jumps, Raising Rate Hike Expectations. The chance of no interest rate change fell after a hot inflation print was released in Australia. Multiple reports indicated that higher inflation figures intensified pressure on the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise rates at its upcoming meeting. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.