NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027?
Yes at 5% on 2 Nov 2026, down 2 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 30 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether a marketwide circuit breaker will be triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) before January 1, 2027. It will resolve to "Yes" if a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index occurs between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026, and "No" otherwise.
Recent market events have included individual stock trading halts, such as the flagging of OPay's $304 million IPO listing on the NYSE, alongside ongoing developments regarding exchange technology and tokenization fights.
The resolution window covers trading days through the end of December 2026, relying on official NYSE information and credible reporting to determine if any marketwide halts are triggered.
Sources: Bloomberg: Opay Shares Fail to Trade After Raising $304 Million in US IPO, Briefs Finance: Opay's $304 Million IPO Stalls as NYSE Flags Trading Halt, Yahoo Finance: Is OPay (OPAY) Fairly Valued On Its Halted $304 Million NYSE Listing?, Bloomberg: US Stock Futures Rise as Oil Drop Buoys Sentiment: Markets Wrap, bloomingbit: Wall Street Tokenization Fight Intensifies as 50 Listed Companies Oppose OKX, NYSE Parent ICE Plans
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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30 Oct 2026
Asian Markets Plunge Amid Wall Street Sell-Off
Asian markets tumbled as a Wall Street AI sell-off rattled the region, with the KOSPI index triggering declines. Major Asian indices like the Nikkei 225 also saw sharp drops ahead of the prediction market move.
Sources: Invezz: Nikkei 225 plunges 3% despite Bank of Japan rate pause: Why?, Benzinga: SK Hynix, Samsung Tumble in South Korea as Wall Street's AI Sell-Off Rattles Asian Markets — KOSPI Trigge
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “NYSE marketwide circuit breaker before 2027”?
On 2 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 5%, which means they saw about a 5 in 100 chance. That was down 2 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 30 Oct 2026, from 8% to 16%: Asian Markets Plunge Amid Wall Street Sell-Off. Asian markets tumbled as a Wall Street AI sell-off rattled the region, with the KOSPI index triggering declines. Major Asian indices like the Nikkei 225 also saw sharp drops ahead of the prediction market move. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a marketwide circuit breaker is triggered on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) at any time between November 7, 2025, and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A marketwide circuit breaker is defined as a trading halt that is initiated due to significant declines in the S&P 500 Index, specifically a Level 1, Level 2, or Level 3 halt as per NYSE rules. The primary resolution source for this market will be official information from the NYSE, however a consensus of credible reporting will also be used.