Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 24% on 5 Nov 2026, up 11 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 1 Nov 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth will be impeached by the US House of Representatives by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if the House passes at least one article of impeachment within this timeframe, while trial or conviction in the Senate is not required. If Hegseth permanently leaves office before the criteria are met, the market resolves to "No".
Following recent midterm election results, momentum for impeachment has grown amid mounting political pressure from both Democrats and some Republicans. Representative Thomas Massie has announced plans to bring forward an impeachment resolution next week, while sources report that President Trump is discussing potential replacements even as he publicly stands by Hegseth.
Hegseth has dismissed the impeachment push as political theater and vowed defiance. Key factors include upcoming congressional actions scheduled for next week and the overarching December 31, 2026 deadline governing the resolution of this market.
Sources: The Intercept: “Dead Man Walking”: Officials Say Hegseth Has to Go, The San Joaquin Valley Sun: Massie warns impeachment move against Hegseth is milder than what Democrats may do, NewsNation: Trump, Hegseth and other cabinet members that could face impeachment, KOKI FOX 23: Massie: 'My Hegseth impeachment resolution' is 'much gentler' than Democrats' version, Crypto Briefing: Hegseth dismisses impeachment effectiveness against Trump and himself, CNN: Sec. Hegseth issues defiant statement amid renewed calls for impeachment, New York Post: Defiant Pete Hegseth claps back at foes demanding his impeachment after midterm romp, Yahoo: Trump stands by Hegseth after election losses, but other Republicans want him out, Truthout: Hegseth’s Wife Was Paid by Consulting Firm Whose Clients Include Lockheed Martin, South China Morning Post: Defiant Hegseth tells US Democrats their impeachment push ‘won’t work’, Mediaite: ‘Political Theater!’ Pete Hegseth Posts Defiant Video Amid Impeachment Push, NBC News: Trump discussing possible Hegseth replacements, sources say, Bloomberg.com: Massie to Bring Hegseth Impeachment Articles Back Next Week, Daily Mail: Democrats on brink of greatest political power in decades after midterms bloodbath... as Republican civil..., The Times: Will Trump be impeached? What happens now Democrats have won the midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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5 Nov 2026
Threat of Hegseth Impeachment Vote Raises Market Odds
The chance of Pete Hegseth being impeached increased after reports emerged that Republican Representative Thomas Massie plans to force a House vote on impeachment unless Hegseth resigns. Lawmakers also pointed to fallout from midterm losses and ongoing controversy surrounding the Iran war.
Sources: The Seattle Times: WA Rep. Adam Smith vows Pentagon oversight; supports Hegseth impeachment, Anadolu Ajansı: US Republican lawmaker to force House vote on Hegseth’s impeachment unless he resigns, Washington Examiner: Massie gives Hegseth impeachment ultimatum as GOP pins blue wave on Iran war, The News International: Pete Hegseth could face fallout from GOP midterm losses amid impeachment push, WHAS11: Thomas Massie's final act? Congressman plans to force Hegseth impeachment vote
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Democrats Win Control of the House
The chance of impeachment fell after news reports showed that Democrats won control of the House of Representatives. Consequently, analysts noted that this outcome affects the legislative math and oversight dynamics in Congress.
Sources: HuffPost: Democrats Win Control Of House Of Representatives, Politico: Democrats are ready to run Congress — and investigate all things Trump
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
Pete Hegseth Impeachment Market Drops
The price of the prediction market decreased following recent news coverage regarding potential impeachment efforts. Articles leading up to the price drop discussed threats from Democrats and opinions calling for his removal. However, none of the provided articles explain the downward price movement.
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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1 Nov 2026
Pete Hegseth Impeachment Threat Intensifies Ahead of Midterms
The chance of Pete Hegseth being impeached increased as reports emerged regarding renewed impeachment threats and damning files being prepared by Pentagon officials. Media coverage detailed plans by Democrats to pursue investigations and an impeachment push following the upcoming United States midterm elections.
Sources: AzerNews: Pentagon chief Pete Hegseth faces renewed impeachment threat ahead of US midterms, Daily Mail: Damning Pentagon files 'that will bring down Pete Hegseth', Raw Story: Pentagon insiders build damning Hegseth dossier stashed in gun safe and bank vault: report, Chosunbiz: Democrats plan Hegseth probe, impeachment push intensifies after US midterms, Informat.ro: Pentagon officials are preparing files against Pete Hegseth, hoping that Democrats will open an investigation after the November elections
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Pete Hegseth impeached by December 31, 2026”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 24%, which means they saw about a 24 in 100 chance. That was up 11 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 5 Nov 2026, from 9% to 21%: Threat of Hegseth Impeachment Vote Raises Market Odds. The chance of Pete Hegseth being impeached increased after reports emerged that Republican Representative Thomas Massie plans to force a House vote on impeachment unless Hegseth resigns. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes“ if the US House of Representatives, by simple majority vote, approves or passes one or more articles of impeachment of United States Secretary of War Pete Hegseth, between market creation and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Neither trial nor conviction by the US Senate, nor removal from office, is necessary to resolve this market to “Yes“. If the named individual permanently vacates the specified office prior to the satisfaction of the criteria for a "Yes" resolution, this market will immediately resolve to "No". The primary resolution source for this market will be information from the federal government of the United States; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.