Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 48% on 4 Nov 2026, up 13 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Pete Hegseth will leave his position as U.S. Secretary of Defense by December 31, 2026. It will resolve to Yes if he ceases to serve for any reason before the deadline, or if his departure or removal is officially announced by then.
Following recent midterms and a Republican electoral rout, speculation has grown regarding Hegseth's future at the Pentagon. While insiders and critics point to mounting political pressure and reports of potential replacements like Ron DeSantis, President Trump has stated he currently has no plans to fire Hegseth and denied reports of an impending replacement.
The situation involves key discussions around political fallout from election losses, potential cabinet shuffles, and alternative roles for Hegseth, such as a possible appointment to a U.S. Senate seat. The market relies on official U.S. government announcements and credible news reporting for its resolution.
Sources: Українські Національні Новини (УНН): Trump said he does not plan to fire Hegseth as secretary of defense, Fox News: Hegseth's future draws ominous predictions from insiders after GOP losses, but Trump isn't budging yet, WKMG: Trump considers Ron DeSantis to replace Pete Hegseth at Pentagon, CBS News source says, Orlando Sentinel: Gov. Ron DeSantis as defense secretary? Report says there’s talk of it, Baltimore Sun: Trump denies reports that say he is replacing Hegseth as defense secretary, New York Post: Trump weighs making Pete Hegseth the fall guy for Republicans’ crushing loss: ‘Knives are definitely out’, CNN: Republicans quickly turn against Pete Hegseth after midterms rout
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Trump Denies Plans to Replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth
The chance of Pete Hegseth leaving office by the end of the year dropped after President Trump denied reports that he was planning to replace his defense secretary. Articles around the time of the shift highlighted the president's stance alongside speculation about Hegseth's future following the midterm elections.
Sources: Fox News: Hegseth's future draws ominous predictions from insiders after GOP losses, but Trump isn't budging yet, Baltimore Sun: Trump denies reports that say he is replacing Hegseth as defense secretary
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Trump Considers Hegseth's Future After Midterm Losses
The chance that Pete Hegseth would leave his position rose after reports indicated that Trump was asking advisers if Hegseth should stay following midterm losses. CBS News and other outlets reported that Trump was considering replacing the Defense Secretary due to the election results.
Sources: CBS News: Trump asking advisers if Hegseth should stay after midterm losses, sources say, Crypto Briefing: Trump consults advisers on Defense Secretary Hegseth’s potential departure: CBS, Crypto Briefing: Trump considers replacing Defense Secretary Hegseth after GOP midterm losses, Breakingthenews.net: Trump said to weigh Hegseth's future as war secretary
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
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26 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 48%, which means they saw about a 48 in 100 chance. That was up 13 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 68% to 42%: Trump Denies Plans to Replace Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth. The chance of Pete Hegseth leaving office by the end of the year dropped after President Trump denied reports that he was planning to replace his defense secretary. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.