Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 35% on 4 Nov 2026, up 12 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 26 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether Pete Hegseth will leave his position as U.S. Secretary of Defense by November 30, 2026. It will resolve to "Yes" if he ceases to be in office for any reason or if an official resignation or removal is announced by the deadline, while it will resolve to "No" if he remains in office.
Following recent midterm election losses for Republicans, political pressure and insider scrutiny have increased regarding Hegseth's future at the Pentagon. While some reports indicate President Trump has considered alternatives such as Ron DeSantis, Trump has also publicly denied reports that he is currently replacing Hegseth.
The market relies on official government information or a credible consensus of reporting, with a final resolution deadline of November 30, 2026.
Sources: Fox News: Hegseth's future draws ominous predictions from insiders after GOP losses, but Trump isn't budging yet, WVLT: Could Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth fill Marsha Blackburn’s Senate seat in Tennessee? Here’s what President Trump said, WKMG: Trump considers Ron DeSantis to replace Pete Hegseth at Pentagon, CBS News source says, Baltimore Sun: Trump denies reports that say he is replacing Hegseth as defense secretary, New York Post: Trump weighs making Pete Hegseth the fall guy for Republicans’ crushing loss: ‘Knives are definitely out’, CNN: Republicans quickly turn against Pete Hegseth after midterms rout
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Hegseth Faces Scrutiny After Midterm Elections
The probability of Pete Hegseth leaving office increased as reports emerged that Republicans were placing blame on him for a midterm election loss. Media outlets reported that President Trump was weighing making Hegseth a fall guy, with experts suggesting he could be replaced soon.
Sources: Washington Examiner: Is Pete Hegseth’s job safe with Iran war taking the blame for blue wave?, Baltimore Sun: Trump denies reports that say he is replacing Hegseth as defense secretary, New York Post: Trump weighs making Pete Hegseth the fall guy for Republicans’ crushing loss: ‘Knives are definitely out’, The Sun: Trump to ax Hegseth in WEEKS as WH looks to place blame for Iran, experts say, CNN: Republicans quickly turn against Pete Hegseth after midterms rout
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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3 Nov 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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26 Oct 2026
Jump detected
Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by November 30”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 35%, which means they saw about a 35 in 100 chance. That was up 12 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 26% to 56%: Hegseth Faces Scrutiny After Midterm Elections. The probability of Pete Hegseth leaving office increased as reports emerged that Republicans were placing blame on him for a midterm election loss. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Pete Hegseth ceases to be U.S. Secretary of Defense for any period of time between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Pete Hegseth's resignation/removal by this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Pete Hegseth and the U.S. government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.