Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
Yes at 2% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Vladimir Putin will cease to be President of Russia by December 31, 2026. The market will resolve to "Yes" if he resigns, is removed, detained, or permanently prevented from fulfilling his duties before the deadline, based on official information or credible reporting.
Recent reports show Putin actively engaging in international diplomacy and discussions, including reassurances to Iranian leadership and interactions with African leaders at a summit. Meanwhile, leaders from Finland and Norway have engaged in direct outreach and phone calls with the Russian president, which have drawn defense and discussion among European officials.
Additional reporting highlights commentary surrounding potential peace talks, foreign policy developments involving the United States, and remarks on global figures. The Kremlin recently ruled out an imminent trilateral summit involving Putin, Donald Trump, and Volodymyr Zelenskyy.
Sources: The Times of India: Putin Reassures Pezeshkian As Iran Faces Regional Tensions: Russia Fulfilling All Obligations’, Hürriyet Daily News: Trump: Putin-Zelensky talks to be set up ‘very soon’, Semafor: Finnish and Norwegian leaders reach out to Russia’s president, The Moscow Times: Norwegian Prime Minister Defends Phone Call With Vladimir Putin, POLITICO.eu: Zelenskyy defends leaders of Finland and Norway over Putin talks, News4JAX: Putin seeks to expand ties with African countries at Russia-Africa summit, وكالة الأنباء الجزائرية: PM attends Russian President's dinner for Russia-Africa Summit leaders, صوت الإمارات: The Kremlin rules out an imminent trilateral summit between Putin, Trump, and Zelenskyy
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 2%, which means they saw about a 2 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Vladimir Putin ceases to be President of Russia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Vladimir Putin's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Vladimir Putin and the government of Russia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.