Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting?
Yes at 85% on 29 Oct 2026, up 24 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 21 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates by 25 basis points at its monetary policy meeting scheduled for November 2-3, 2026. The market will resolve based on official data released by the RBA regarding the cash rate target.
Recent inflation data has increased market expectations for a rate hike at the upcoming meeting. Major banks and traders are currently bracing for a potential rate increase, which would coincide with Melbourne Cup day.
The decision will be announced following the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board meeting in early November 2026, with financial markets closely monitoring the central bank's next steps.
Sources: FXStreet: Australian Dollar holds above 0.7050 as hot CPI boosts RBA hike bets, News.com.au: Big four banks tip Melbourne Cup rate hike, FXStreet: Australian Dollar edges higher above 0.7050 as hot CPI lifts RBA rate hike odds, investingLive: RBA set for fifth 2026 hike to 4.85% as banks flag risk of another move in February, TradingView: RBA set to inflict fifth interest rate hike on Cup Day, number six is now a 50-50 bet, Bloomberg: Traders Brace for More RBA Rate Hikes
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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28 Oct 2026
Hot Inflation Data Triggers November RBA Rate Hike Expectations
A hotter than expected inflation print led major banks and analysts to predict a 25 basis point rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its November meeting. Reports from multiple financial and news sources highlighted that persistent inflation pressures have made another rate hike all but certain.
Sources: ABC News & Headlines – Australian Broadcasting Corporation: Chalmers lowers expectations for fuel discounts after high inflation result, The Courier Mail: Fifth rate hike looms as inflation nightmare deepens, Allora! Italian Australian News: RBA Sees No Near-Term Recession as Michele Bullock Warns Inflation Is “Far Too High”, AFR: Back-to-back rate rises on the cards after hot inflation print, CommBank: Australian shares pare gains as RBA rate increase looms, FXStreet: Equities trade cautiously higher on Hynix’s results, Australian Conveyancer: CBA expects RBA to raise cash rate to 4.85 per cent, Real Estate: November RBA rate hike likely locked in as high inflation lingers, Australian Broker: Inflation still too hot to handle, Michael West Media: Australian shares finish flat as rate increase looms, ad-hoc-news.de: Westpac reaffirms November rate hike call and Westpac stock costs EUR 22.97, News.com.au: Economist’s grim words on losing homes, www.tmgm.com: Australian Dollar outperforms as hot CPI data lifts hawkish RBA expectations, Pound Sterling Live: Australian Dollar Supported as Inflation Data Locks in November RBA Hike, www.tmgm.com: Hot CPI bolsters hawkish RBA expectations as Australian Dollar outperforms
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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27 Oct 2026
Drop in RBA Rate Hike Expectations
The probability that the Reserve Bank of Australia will increase interest rates by 25 basis points in November declined from 68% to 52%. Articles published around this time discussed upcoming core inflation previews and noted that over half of a potential rate hike was already factored into pricing.
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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22 Oct 2026
RBA Rate Hike Odds Jump After Inflation Warning
The chance of a November rate hike increased after reports that the RBA warned the inflation outlook has worsened. Articles published around this time indicated that interest rate rise odds jumped as markets reacted to the worsening inflation outlook and potential rate decisions.
Sources: Proactive Investors Australia: November rate hike odds jump as RBA warns inflation outlook has worsened, Yahoo Finance Australia: ‘Doesn’t look good’: Grim new rates era, The Australian: Interest rate rise odds double after RBA spooks market, The Australian: RBA softens ground for Melbourne Cup Day interest rate hike, Proactive Investors Australia: Oil above US$110 threatens fresh Australian inflation shock, Ticker News: ‘Hope is not a strategy’: RBA’s inflation challenge, Neos Kosmos: RBA: Difficult decisions on interest rates, Australian Broker: RBA rate hike fears reignite as inflation outlook worsens, AFR: Traders weigh cash rate above 5pc after RBA’s warning shot, AFR: Why five-year-high unemployment won’t stop another RBA rate rise, News24: Hike in November to avoid December rate rise, top economist tells RBA, CommBank: September data will keep inflation pressure on RBA: CommBank economists
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.
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21 Oct 2026
RBA Inflation Warnings Drive Up November Rate Hike Odds
The chance of a rate hike jumped after Reserve Bank of Australia officials warned that the country's inflation outlook had deteriorated significantly. Media reports highlighted that these hawkish remarks pushed market bets for a November interest rate increase higher.
Sources: IndexBox: RBA's Hauser Says Inflation Outlook Has Deteriorated Ahead of November 3 Meeting - News and Statistics, AFR: Rate rise bets jump after RBA warns of ‘materially worse’ inflation, Elite Agent: Inflation showdown puts fifth RBA rate hike firmly on the table, Bloomberg.com: RBA’s Hauser Says Australia Inflation Outlook ‘Materially Worse’, Yahoo Finance: RBA Nov rate hike bets surge to over 50% after Hauser warning on inflation
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “Reserve Bank of Australia Decision in November”
- No change14%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the November 2026 meeting”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 85%, which means they saw about a 85 in 100 chance. That was up 24 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Oct 2026, from 59% to 95%: Hot Inflation Data Triggers November RBA Rate Hike Expectations. A hotter than expected inflation print led major banks and analysts to predict a 25 basis point rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia at its November meeting. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, 2 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve according to the change in basis points in the cash rate target resulting from the November 2026 meeting of the Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Monetary Policy Board, relative to the level it was prior to this meeting. The resolution source will be official information from the Reserve Bank of Australia, including the statement or release from its November 2026 meeting, scheduled for November 2-3, 2026, as listed on the official RBA calendar (https://www.rba.gov.au/schedules-events/calendar/?topics=monetary-policy-board). This market may resolve as soon as the statement or release of the Reserve Bank of Australia Monetary Policy Board resulting from its November 2026 meeting with relevant data is issued. If the specified rate is defined by an upper and lower bound, the relevant change will be the change to the upper bound. If the specified rate is changed to a level not expressed in the displayed options, the change will be rounded according to the following guidelines. Increases or decreases of less than 25 bps will be rounded to 25 bps (e.g. an increase or decrease of 10 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 25 bps). Increases or decreases of greater than 25 bps will be rounded to the nearest 25 bps and will be rounded away from 0 in cases of equidistance (e.g., an increase or decrease of 37.5 bps would be considered to be an increase or decrease of 50 bps). Displayed options of "Increase" or "Decrease" will include policy rate increases or decreases of any size. If the specified meeting is postponed to a date and time before the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve based on the outcome of that postponed meeting. If the specified meeting is cancelled, or postponed such that no decision is announced by the start of the next scheduled meeting, this market will resolve to the "No Change" bracket. Emergency changes to the specified rate not resulting from the specified meeting will not be considered.