Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
Yes at 12% on 29 Oct 2026, unchanged over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether commercial shipping traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal before the end of 2026. The market will resolve to "Yes" if the IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average of transit calls reaches or exceeds 60 on any date between market creation and December 31, 2026, and will resolve to "No" if it fails to reach this threshold by that date.
Recent reports indicate a mixed outlook on the ground, with US officials noting that traffic is rising "very meaningfully" while other reports and tracking data suggest ship traffic has dropped to single digits amid continued vessel attacks, fires, and mine incidents in the region.
Key factors influencing the outcome include diplomatic proposals from Iran regarding a potential reopening of the strait if the US lifts blockades, alongside ongoing security tensions involving the US military and Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
Sources: https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade, Haaretz: Iran Says New Proposal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Under Review, Gulf News: US military rejects Iranian mine-strike claims, says Hormuz transit lanes remain 'clear', EnergyNow.com: US Energy Secretary Says Ship Traffic Through Strait of Hormuz Rising ‘Very Meaningfully’, EnergyNow.com: Hormuz at Near Standstill as Iran Warns Ships to Keep to its Waters, EnergyNow: Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls to Single Digits, Data Shows, IndustryWeek: Strait of Hormuz Watch: Vessel Attacks Persist, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Araghchi says Iran could reopen Hormuz within days if conditions met, Kurdistan24: Iran’s IRGC Says It Downed US-Made Drone Near Strait of Hormuz, Ahram Online: Ship on fire in Strait of Hormuz: maritime agency - Region - World, 24NewsHD: Iran Guards says three oil tankers on fire after hitting mines in Hormuz
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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Any time before December 31, 2026
IMF Portwatch Data Updates
The publication of IMF Portwatch data showing a 7-day moving average of transit calls reaching or exceeding 60 would immediately resolve the market to Yes.
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Within days
Potential Iranian Reopening of the Strait
Statements by Iranian officials indicate that plans to reopen the Strait of Hormuz are under review, which could increase ship traffic and push the chance of Yes higher.
Source: NewsCord: Abbas Araghchi Says Iran Reviews Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz Within Days: 14 outlets compared, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Araghchi says Iran could reopen Hormuz within days if conditions met
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Ongoing
Vessel Attacks and Mine Incidents
Ongoing reports of vessel attacks, fires, and mine explosions in the Strait of Hormuz could keep traffic low, reducing the likelihood of a Yes resolution.
Source: Ahram Online: Ship on fire in Strait of Hormuz: maritime agency - Region - World, IndustryWeek: Strait of Hormuz Watch: Vessel Attacks Persist, Türkiye Today: IRGC claims 3 tankers exploded after hitting mines on 'unauthorized' Hormuz route, Al Arabiya English: Iran’s IRGC says three tankers on fire after hitting mines in Hormuz, Vanguard News: Iran Guards says three tankers on fire after hitting mines in Hormuz, https://houseofsaud.com/: IRGC Says 3 Oil Tankers Hit Mines in Strait of Hormuz, The New Indian Express: Three tankers on fire after hitting mines in Hormuz: Iran's Revolutionary Guards
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 12%, which means they saw about a 12 in 100 chance. That was unchanged over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: IMF Portwatch Data Updates; Potential Iranian Reopening of the Strait; Vessel Attacks and Mine Incidents. Details are under “What could move it next”.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and December 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for December 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.