Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 4% on 4 Nov 2026, down 3 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This market asks whether maritime traffic through the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by November 30, 2026. Specifically, it will resolve to "Yes" if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls for the strait equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, relying on published data.
Current reports indicate that shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz has fallen to low levels and remained flat throughout October amid ongoing disruptions and vessel attacks. While the Aramco CEO warned that oil market recovery could extend into 2027 and US forces have targeted mine-laying vessels, the US Energy Secretary recently stated that ship traffic is rising "very meaningfully."
Key factors influencing the situation include ongoing negotiations involving Iran, potential deals or exemptions for certain national fleets, and security actions in the region. The resolution of this market depends entirely on official IMF Portwatch 7-day moving average data published on or before November 30, 2026.
Sources: EnergyNow.com: Strait of Hormuz Disruption Could Push Oil Market Recovery into 2027, Aramco CEO Says, EnergyNow.com: Iran Says Deal on Strait of Hormuz is Close But Will Not Open the Waterway by Itself, energynews.pro: Hormuz Traffic Stays Nearly Flat in October as Tanker Transits Fall, EnergyNow: Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls to Single Digits, Data Shows, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: US targets mine-laying vessels in the Strait of Hormuz amid blockade disrupting global oil markets, EnergyNow.com: US Energy Secretary Says Ship Traffic Through Strait of Hormuz Rising ‘Very Meaningfully’, The Indian Express: Indian ships exempt from Hormuz curbs: What Iran wants in return, IndustryWeek: Strait of Hormuz Watch: Negotiations Continue as Vessel Attacks Persist
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by November 30”?
On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 4%, which means they saw about a 4 in 100 chance. That was down 3 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and November 30, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for November 30, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.