Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31?
Yes at 0% on 28 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether maritime traffic in the Strait of Hormuz will return to normal levels by October 31, 2026. Specifically, it resolves to "Yes" if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above 60 for any date up to October 31, 2026, and "No" otherwise.
Currently, shipping traffic through the strait has fallen significantly to near standstill levels. Recent reports indicate that maritime activities are severely disrupted, with ongoing security concerns and warnings issued to commercial vessels.
Key factors impacting the situation include reported mine incidents, legal threats and warnings directed at tanker operators such as Sinokor Merchant Marine, and the strict guidance from Iranian forces regarding vessel movements in the area as monitored through October 2026.
Sources: Kurdistan24: Iran Says Oil Tanker Hit Naval Mines in Strait of Hormuz, Energy Intelligence: Hormuz Flows Edge Higher But Uncertainty Abounds, Mehr News Agency: Oil tanker on fire after hitting mines in Hormuz: Iran Army, The Maritime Executive: Iranian Forces Threaten Sinokor with “Legal Action” for Hormuz Violations, EnergyNow: Hormuz Shipping Traffic Falls to Single Digits, Data Shows, Baird Maritime: Iran threatens legal action against tanker owner Sinokor, news.sbs.co.kr: Iran Claims Oil Tanker Catches Fire After Striking Mine in Strait of Hormuz, The Standard (HK): Iran army says oil tanker on fire after hitting mines in Hormuz, EnergyNow.com: Why Restoring Normal Traffic Through Hormuz Won’t Be Easy, NewsCord: Iran’s Military Says Oil Tanker Caught Fire After Striking Mine Near Strait Of Hormuz: 7 outlets compared, EnergyNow.com: Hormuz at Near Standstill as Iran Warns Ships to Keep to its Waters, BigGo Finance: Iran Warns South Korea's Janggeum Merchant Marine, Which Controls 37% of Hormuz Crude Shipments, of Sanctions on Entire Fleet, 조선일보: Iran Threatens Legal Action Against Sinokor Merchant Marine Over Hormuz Crude Dominance, Al-Bawaba: IRGC: Oil tanker explodes in the Strait of Hormuz, Rigzone: Iran Cracks Down on Sinokor Tankers
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 0%, which means they saw about a 0 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market creation and October 31, 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Daily transit calls include container, dry bulk, roll-on/roll-off, general cargo, and tanker ships. Ships not reported by IMF Portwatch will not be considered. This market will resolve as soon as IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls equal to or above the specified level, or once data has been published for the final date in the specified period and no such value has been published. If no data has been published for the final date of the specified period within 14 calendar days (ET) after the end of that period, this market will resolve based on data published up to that point. Revisions to previously published data points made within this market’s timeframe will be considered. However, they will not disqualify a previously published data point from qualifying. Revisions to previously published data points after data is published for October 31, 2026, however, will not be considered. In case of obvious data integrity issues (i.e., erroneous data), the market may remain open until the end of the third calendar day (ET) after the date on which such data is first released to allow for corrections. Data integrity issues refer only to clerical or other similar errors in the underlying data, and do not include cases where IMF Portwatch differs from alternative sources. The resolution source for this market will be IMF Portwatch, specifically the transit calls data published for the Strait of Hormuz at https://portwatch.imf.org/pages/cb5856222a5b4105adc6ee7e880a1730, both in the chart and through downloadable files.