Total Internet Blackout in Iran by December 31, 2026?

25 big jumps since 28 Sep 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

We haven’t written context for this market yet.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 23 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    57% → 37%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 22 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    39% → 70%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.

  3. 21 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    26% → 44%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.

  4. 21 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    38% → 25%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: too early.

  5. 21 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    20% → 38%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.

  6. 19 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    32% → 19%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.

  7. 15 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    32% → 19%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

  8. 15 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    25% → 34%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.

  9. 14 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    37% → 24%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

  10. 13 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    37% → 19%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.

  11. 12 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    31% → 22%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

  12. 11 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    42% → 28%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

  13. 11 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    18% → 26%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.

  14. 10 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    32% → 18%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.

  15. 10 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    34% → 24%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.

  16. 9 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    40% → 20%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

  17. 9 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    12% → 30%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.

  18. 7 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    24% → 16%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

  19. 7 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    35% → 26%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

  20. 6 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    20% → 36%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: held.

  21. 2 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    28% → 18%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: partly reverted.

  22. 2 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    28% → 19%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.

  23. 1 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    32% → 16%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: held.

  24. 30 Sep 2026

    Jump detected

    10% → 36%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

  25. 28 Sep 2026

    Jump detected

    26% → 10%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: partly reverted.

Questions about this market

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 25 big jumps old enough to check, 14 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 31 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if a total internet blackout occurs in Iran by the specified date, 11:59 PM UTC. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. For the purposes of this market, a “total internet blackout” occurring means that, according to Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, total bytes transferred have fallen to 1.0% or less of the last 4 weeks’ Max for at least six consecutive hourly data points, as shown in the Traffic trends → Bytes transferred (Total bytes) chart for the last 4 weeks (https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d). The relevant figures for each hourly data point are listed in this chart as “__% of Max”. The Max for each data point will be the Max figure used in the chart by Cloudflare. Only the first of the relevant consecutive hourly data points must fall before this market’s resolution time. If required, to confirm the full sequence, the market will remain open until both relevant data points are observed. The primary resolution source for this market will be Cloudflare Radar data for Iran, specifically the Iran Traffic trends chart for the last 4 weeks found at https://radar.cloudflare.com/traffic/ir?dateRange=28d. If this resolution source becomes permanently unavailable, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.