Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31?

Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next

Yes at 7% on 4 Nov 2026, down 22 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 10 Oct 2026, listed below.

Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.

Context

This market asks whether President Donald Trump will formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act specifically regarding U.S. election interference by December 31, 2026. The market resolves to Yes if such a formal declaration is issued and published in the Federal Register or by the White House, and No otherwise.

The 2026 midterm elections have recently concluded, having served as a referendum on the presidency amidst various logistical challenges, severe weather, and ongoing debates surrounding potential election interference.

Sources: San Francisco Chronicle: Election Day unfolded with relatively few problems, despite worries over Trump election interference, Firstpost: How Trump could interfere in the 2026 US midterms, PBS: Midterm elections come to a close in referendum on Trump's presidency, The National News Desk: Florida flooding disrupts Election Day voting, forces polling changes in 7 counties, France 24: Election officials brace for possible Trump interference in the midterms

Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.

What could move it next

No upcoming events listed for this market yet.

Price jumps explained

  1. 4 Nov 2026

    Jump detected

    33% → 8%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.

  2. 23 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    38% → 27%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.

  3. 22 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    27% → 38%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

  4. 10 Oct 2026

    Jump detected

    22% → 34%

    Not explained yet. The write-up is added automatically, usually within a few hours.

    After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: reverted.

Questions about this market

What are the odds for “Trump declares election interference national emergency by December 31”?

On 4 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 7%, which means they saw about a 7 in 100 chance. That was down 22 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.

Do big jumps in this market usually hold?

Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.

How does this market resolve?

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.

When does this market end?

Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.

Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?

No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.

How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)

This market will resolve to “Yes” if President Donald Trump formally declares a national emergency, pursuant to the National Emergencies Act, explicitly relating to interference in U.S. elections or election processes, by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying declaration must include formal language stating that a national emergency exists and must be issued under the National Emergencies Act (50 U.S.C. § 1621 et seq.). The declaration must explicitly reference interference in U.S. elections, election processes, election systems, voting procedures, ballots, or voting machines as the basis for the emergency. Statements, speeches, social media posts, draft orders, executive orders that do not formally declare a national emergency under the National Emergencies Act, or other actions that merely reference election interference without declaring a national emergency will not qualify. Renewals or extensions of previously existing national emergencies will not qualify unless the text is materially modified to explicitly relate to election interference. The primary resolution source will be the Federal Register and official White House publications, however a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.