Trump out as President before 2027?
Yes at 3% on 31 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Donald Trump will leave office, resign, or be permanently removed as President of the United States before the end of December 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if official resignation, permanent removal, or a sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment occurs by the deadline, while temporary removals or impeachments without final removal do not qualify.
As of late October 2026, political attention is heavily focused on the upcoming midterm elections with just days remaining before Election Day. Recent news highlights campaign rallies across states like Florida, Kansas, Iowa, and Tennessee as both parties battle for control of Congress.
Analysts and media outlets are examining what potential Democratic gains in the midterms could mean for the administration, including speculation about future congressional actions or impeachment discussions. Key dates and factors include the imminent midterm elections and ongoing polling shifts as President Trump works to mobilize voter support.
Sources: The New York Times: Trump Cancels Rallies in Kansas and Iowa, Forbes: Why Trump Might Avoid Another Impeachment Even If Democrats Win Midterms, CNBC: Wall Street braces for Democratic gains as 2026 midterm election nears, BBC: What's at stake for Trump in the US midterms?, Moneycontrol.com: Trump impeached twice, acquitted twice: Could Democrats launch a third bid if Republicans lose midterms?..., National Review: President Trump Got the 2026 Matchups He Wanted, Council on Foreign Relations: The Surprising Staying Power of Trump’s Tariffs, PBS: A midterm crossroads for both parties eyeing the beginning of the end of the Trump era, BBC: Who will win the midterms? How the US elections will be won and lost, MyNorthwest.com: AP Decision Notes: What to expect in Tennessee on Election Day, Al Jazeera: US midterms: 4 days to go – What the polls say as Trump reinstates rallies, Sun Sentinel: Trump seeks to mobilize support for Florida Republicans at rally in Daytona Beach, South China Morning Post: Trump insists Republicans ‘have a shot’ in US midterms as rallies resume, NBC News: Midterms 2026: Congress Polls and More, The Times: Who will win the 2026 midterm elections? Polls and predictions
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “Trump out as President before 2027”?
On 31 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 3%, which means they saw about a 3 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump resigns or is removed as President or otherwise ceases to be the President of the United States for any period of time by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Donald Trump's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. Only permanent removal from office will qualify. Temporary removal (e.g. temporary invocation of the 25th Amendment under Section 3 or a Section 4 invocation not sustained by both Houses of Congress) or impeachment without removal will not count. A sustained invocation of the Twenty-Fifth Amendment, Section 4 (i.e., if both Houses of Congress, by two-thirds vote, uphold the Vice President and Cabinet’s determination of presidential inability) will qualify for a "Yes" resolution. The resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.