US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026?
Yes at 12% on 3 Nov 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. 2 big jumps since 28 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the United States will officially announce the end or suspension of its naval blockade of Iran by November 15, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if an authorized U.S. representative makes a declarative statement ending the blockade for Iranian ships and customers by that deadline.
Recent reports indicate that intensive talks are underway between the U.S. and Iran following mediation in Doha, even as the U.S. recently conducted defensive strikes in the Strait of Hormuz and on Qeshm Island.
President Donald Trump has signaled progress and stated that Iran wants a deal, while Iran has linked the reopening of Hormuz to the U.S. ending its blockade.
Sources: Tehran Times: Iran rejects uranium transfer abroad, says Hormuz reopening depends on US ending blockade, Aaj English TV: Iran, US in ‘intensive’ talks to avert return to war, France 24: US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump signals progress in talks, Nation Thailand: Iran details two-day US deal plan on Nov 2 after Doha talks, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Trump Says Iran Wants A Deal ‘And It Could Happen’, finchannel: US-Iran Talks Continue as Doha Mediation Ends Without Breakthrough
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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Before November 15, 2026
Ongoing US-Iran Diplomatic Talks
Intensive negotiations and diplomatic mediation efforts are continuing between the US and Iran, which could potentially lead to a breakthrough and an official lifting of the blockade.
Source: The New Indian Express: Iran says in 'intensive' negotiations with US to avert war, Tehran Times: Iran rejects uranium transfer abroad, says Hormuz reopening depends on US ending blockade, Nation Thailand: Iran details two-day US deal plan on Nov 2 after Doha talks, finchannel: US-Iran Talks Continue as Doha Mediation Ends Without Breakthrough
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Before November 15, 2026
Potential US Military Actions in Iran
Recent US military strikes on Iranian targets and Qeshm Island, alongside discussions of further strikes, could escalate tensions and reduce the likelihood of a negotiated end to the blockade.
Source: CSIS | Center for Strategic and International Studies: What Are U.S. Military Options in Iran?, ABC7 Bay Area: US-Iran war news: Israel's Benjamin Netanyahu wants Donald Trump administration to carry out new Iran strikes, officials tell AP, France 24: US strikes Iran's Qeshm Island as Trump signals progress in talks, PBS: U.S. strikes Iranian targets in Strait of Hormuz, U.S. official tells AP
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Before November 15, 2026
Official Statements on Blockade Conditions
Iranian officials have stated that reopening the Strait of Hormuz depends on the US ending the blockade, and any further official statements or policy changes from either government could shift market odds.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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1 Nov 2026
US-Iran Blockade Talks Face Obstacles
The likelihood of the US announcing an end to the blockade decreased as reports indicated that diplomatic efforts remain deadlocked. Iran stated that despite a shift in the tone of the US, ongoing demands continue to block progress in negotiations.
Sources: Iran International: Iran says US tone shifts but demands still block talks
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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28 Oct 2026
Iran Discusses Seven-Day Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz
The chance of the US announcing an end to the Iranian blockade increased after reports emerged that Iran was discussing a seven-day confidence-building proposal with mediators to open the Strait of Hormuz. Iranian officials noted they were reviewing this plan through Qatari mediators during ongoing diplomatic efforts.
Sources: Kurdistan24: Iran Discusses Seven-Day Plan to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, Araghchi Says, NewsCord: Abbas Araghchi Says Iran Reviews 7-Day Plan With US Via Qatari Mediators: 9 outlets compared, news.sbs.co.kr: Iran Discusses '7-Day Confidence-Building Proposal' with Mediators to Open Strait of Hormuz
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “US announces end of Iranian blockade by...?”
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 15, 2026”?
On 3 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 12%, which means they saw about a 12 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 1 Nov 2026, from 22% to 12%: US-Iran Blockade Talks Face Obstacles. The likelihood of the US announcing an end to the blockade decreased as reports indicated that diplomatic efforts remain deadlocked. Iran stated that despite a shift in the tone of the US, ongoing demands continue to block progress in negotiations. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 2).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Ongoing US-Iran Diplomatic Talks; Potential US Military Actions in Iran; Official Statements on Blockade Conditions. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 2 big jumps old enough to check, both held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 16 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.