US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
Yes at 2% on 28 Oct 2026, down 5 pts over the previous 7 days. 1 big jump since 28 Sep 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the United States government will officially announce the end or suspension of its naval blockade on Iranian ships and customers by October 31, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if such a general termination is publicly declared by the deadline, and "No" otherwise.
Recent reports indicate that international mediators are pushing for a five-day deal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz, while Iran has stated that the strait could reopen within days if the United States lifts its blockade. Meanwhile, the U.S. administration has warned ships to avoid unnecessary transits through the area as the blockade remains enforced.
The naval blockade was originally announced by President Trump on July 13, 2026, targeting Iranian ships and customers amid rising economic and military costs. Observers and market participants are closely watching how the policy and potential diplomatic deals will unfold ahead of the approaching October 31 resolution date.
Sources: TOKENPOST: Mediators Push Five-Day U.S.-Iran Deal to Reopen Strait of Hormuz, The Detroit News: US costs of Iran war rise to over $47 billion, according to Pentagon estimate, https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade, Bloomberg.com: US Tells Ships to Avoid Unnecessary Transits Through Hormuz, Gulf News: US enforces blockade of Iranian ports as regional threat level hits ‘severe’: UKMTO
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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31 Oct 2026
Market Resolution Deadline
The market resolves to Yes if the US government officially announces the end of the naval blockade by 11:59 PM ET on this date, and No otherwise.
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Any time before the market closes
Pentagon Policy Statements
Official statements from Pentagon leadership regarding the indefinite continuation of the naval blockade would decrease the chance of a Yes resolution, following recent remarks that the US can maintain the posture indefinitely.
Source: EnergyNow: US Can Keep Naval Blockade on Iranian Ports “Indefinitely,” Pentagon Chief Says
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Any time before the market closes
Iran-Russia Energy Cooperation
Ongoing discussions between Tehran and Moscow regarding joint oil and gas projects indicate continued defiance of the US restrictions, potentially influencing Washington's calculus on lifting the blockade.
Source: Iran International: Iran, Russia eye joint oil and gas projects amid US blockade, Latest news from Azerbaijan: Tehran and Moscow explore energy cooperation despite US blockade
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Any time before the market closes
Strait of Hormuz Reopening Conditions
Statements from Iranian officials indicating that the Hormuz route could reopen within days if the US lifts the blockade highlight the conditions under which policy might shift.
Source: https://houseofsaud.com/: Iran Says Hormuz Can Reopen in 4-5 Days if US Lifts Blockade
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Any time before the market closes
Domestic Economic Pressures and Fuel Costs
Continued public and media scrutiny regarding high US fuel costs and domestic economic impacts related to the Iran conflict could pressure the administration to reconsider its blockade policy.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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28 Sep 2026
Iran Resends Hormuz Reopening Proposal to US
The price for the US ending the Iranian blockade increased following reports that Iran resent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to the United States. Meanwhile, Iran also ruled out new talks with the US after a rejection of its previous offer.
Sources: The New Arab: Iran rules out new US talks after Trump rejects Hormuz offer, bloomingbit: Iran Resends Hormuz Reopening Proposal to US, Rules Out Nuclear Talks
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 2%, which means they saw about a 2 in 100 chance. That was down 5 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 28 Sep 2026, from 26% to 36%: Iran Resends Hormuz Reopening Proposal to US. The price for the US ending the Iranian blockade increased following reports that Iran resent a proposal to reopen the Strait of Hormuz to the United States. Meanwhile, Iran also ruled out new talks with the US after a rejection of its previous offer. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 1).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: Market Resolution Deadline (31 Oct 2026); Pentagon Policy Statements; Iran-Russia Energy Cooperation. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 1 big jump old enough to check, 0 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
On July 13, 2026, Trump announced the United States would reinstate its naval blockade of Iran, targeting Iranian ships and customers. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, lifting, or suspension of the United States’ naval blockade on Iranian ships and ships of Iranian customers, between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement qualifies if it communicates that the United States will generally cease blocking vessel traffic for Iranian ships and customers, including an announcement that the blockade will not take effect at all, even if some restrictions remain (for example, an imposition of fees). An announcement does not qualify if it reflects only a limited or partial change that stops short of a general end or suspension of the blockade, for example, an exemption for a specific vessel, cargo, or port. A qualifying announcement must be a declarative statement of the United States government’s present termination or suspension of the blockade, previously-unannounced prior termination or suspension of the blockade, or definitive decision to terminate or suspend the blockade. A qualifying announcement must clearly and unambiguously identify the end or suspension of the blockade. Statements that merely allude to, reference, or describe an end to the blockade, without clearly communicating it, do not qualify. The announcement need not use specific terminology or reference the end of a blockade by name; an announcement of a resumption of prior obligations, the maintenance of a status quo, or a return to a previously agreed baseline qualifies, provided the substantive policy of ending or suspending the blockade is clearly and unambiguously communicated. A qualifying announcement must be made through official channels, by an individual acting in an official capacity. Statements made incidentally or informally in a context not intended for official communication do not qualify. The following do not qualify: Anonymous, unattributed, or leaked statements not confirmed as official; Statements by persons not authorized to speak for the United States government; Third-party speculation, analysis, or predictions that the United States government will announce or implement an end to the blockade; Satirical, fabricated, hacked, or impersonated communications; and Statements that describe a prospective, contingent, probable, or conditional end to the blockade rather than announcing a present and decided position. Once a qualifying announcement is made, this market will resolve to “Yes” regardless of whether it is later reversed, or whether the blockade actually ends in practice. Resolution will be based on official information from the United States government, including the President, the Department of Defense, the Department of State, and United States Central Command (CENTCOM), or the official representatives of the United States government.