US imports Russian diesel by December 31?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 15% on 5 Nov 2026, down 57 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 21 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the United States will import Russian diesel fuel before December 31, 2026. It resolves to Yes if Russian diesel is physically delivered to a US port or terrestrial territory for commercial or government use under the October 2026 agreement, and No otherwise.
As of early November 2026, reports indicate that roughly 300,000 tons of Russian diesel and several tankers are potentially headed toward the US, drawing monitoring from Ukrainian officials and pushback from New Jersey leadership warning terminals against accepting the shipments.
The events follow an October 9, 2026 announcement by Donald Trump regarding an agreement with Vladimir Putin and a subsequent US Treasury General License 135 permitting Russian diesel imports through April 7, 2027, though regional officials and legal warnings have created hurdles for terminal operators.
Sources: The Maritime Executive: Warning of Harsh Penalties for Terminals Importing “Illegal" Russian Diesel, The Cool Down: Russian diesel tanker reportedly clears New York destination as US import ban remains in force, UkrMedia News: Tankers carrying Russian diesel are turning away from the US: what happened to Trump’s deal?, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Ukraine Monitoring 8 Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel Potentially Bound For US, Mezha.net: Ukraine Monitors Eight Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel That Could Be Bound for US, finway.com.ua: Ukrainian officials track tankers carrying Russian diesel to US, Gazeta Express: Ukraine is monitoring eight Russian diesel tankers that could be headed to the US, Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com: New Jersey Moves to Block Trump's Russian Diesel Imports, UA.NEWS: Governor Sherrill urges New Jersey ports not to accept Russian diesel — OilPrice, njtoday.news: Sherrill warns NJ port operators against accepting Russian diesel shipments, Euromaidan Press: 300,000 tons of Russian diesel are reportedly heading to US — but New Jersey governor warns buyers of legal risks, Traders Union: U.S. diesel import plan from Russia falters as supplies hit two-decade low, Energy News Beat: New Jersey Moves to Block Trump’s Russian Diesel Imports, EnergyNow.com: US Unlikely to Grant New Waiver to Buy Russian Oil, Wright Says, New Jersey Monitor: NJ governor warns gas companies of sanctions for importing Russian diesel
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel Turn Away From US
The price for the prediction market dropped after reports emerged that tankers carrying Russian diesel were turning away from the United States. Additional reporting noted that some vessels were changing course while officials monitored tankers potentially bound for the US.
Sources: The Cool Down: Russian diesel tanker reportedly clears New York destination as US import ban remains in force, UkrMedia News: Tankers carrying Russian diesel are turning away from the US: what happened to Trump’s deal?, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Ukraine Monitoring 8 Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel Potentially Bound For US, Mezha.net: Ukraine Monitors Eight Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel That Could Be Bound for US
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
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4 Nov 2026
New Jersey Governor Warns Ports Against Russian Diesel
The chance of Russian diesel imports to the US decreased after New Jersey's governor warned port operators against accepting the fuel. Additional reports noted that the governor sought to block the imports and warned of harsh penalties for terminals.
Sources: CBS News: New Jersey's governor warns ports against accepting Russian diesel, Reuters: New Jersey governor warns ports against accepting Russian diesel, TradeWinds News: New Jersey governor seeks to block Russian diesel imports as tankers divert, WorkBoat: NJ governor warns port operators against Russian diesel imports, Newser: Governor Tells NJ Ports to Reject Russian Diesel, The Maritime Executive: Warning of Harsh Penalties for Terminals Importing “Illegal" Russian Diesel
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
US Companies Turn Away from Russian Diesel
The chance of Russian diesel imports to the US decreased after reports emerged that American companies were turning away from the fuel and considering sending tankers to Brazil instead. This commercial hesitation contributed to the lower probability of imports occurring by the end of the year.
Sources: UA.NEWS: U.S. companies are turning away from Russian diesel; tankers may head to Brazil
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Russia Announces First Diesel Cargo to US
The chance of the market resolving to yes increased after reports stated that Russia will send its first diesel cargo to the United States on Thursday. This development followed an earlier agreement and the lifting of sanctions on fuel supplies under a deal with the administration.
Sources: Al Jazeera: Russia to send first diesel tanker to the US amid Trump deal, Reuters: Russia says it will send first diesel cargo to US on Thursday
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “US imports Russian diesel by...?”
- January 3119%
- November 3015%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US imports Russian diesel by December 31”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 15%, which means they saw about a 15 in 100 chance. That was down 57 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 30% to 18%: Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel Turn Away From US. The price for the prediction market dropped after reports emerged that tankers carrying Russian diesel were turning away from the United States. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, all 3 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.