US imports Russian diesel by January 31?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 19% on 5 Nov 2026, down 29 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 31 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the United States will import Russian diesel fuel by January 31, 2027. It will resolve to "Yes" if Russian-origin diesel is physically delivered to a U.S. port or territory for use under the October 9, 2026 agreement, and "No" otherwise.
As of early November 2026, reports indicate that while around eight tankers carrying Russian diesel are being monitored, imports are facing significant domestic pushback. State officials in New Jersey have warned port operators and gas companies against accepting the shipments, citing legal risks and potential penalties.
The situation follows an announcement on October 9, 2026, by Donald Trump regarding an agreement with Vladimir Putin and the U.S. Treasury's issuance of General License 135, which authorized imports through April 7, 2027. Despite this authorization, state-level opposition and legal warnings have created uncertainty regarding whether the shipments will successfully dock.
Sources: WorkBoat: NJ governor warns port operators against Russian diesel imports, The Maritime Executive: Warning of Harsh Penalties for Terminals Importing “Illegal" Russian Diesel, The Cool Down: Russian diesel tanker reportedly clears New York destination as US import ban remains in force, UkrMedia News: Tankers carrying Russian diesel are turning away from the US: what happened to Trump’s deal?, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Ukraine Monitoring 8 Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel Potentially Bound For US, Mezha.net: Ukraine Monitors Eight Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel That Could Be Bound for US, finway.com.ua: Ukrainian officials track tankers carrying Russian diesel to US, Gazeta Express: Ukraine is monitoring eight Russian diesel tankers that could be headed to the US, Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com: New Jersey Moves to Block Trump's Russian Diesel Imports, UA.NEWS: Governor Sherrill urges New Jersey ports not to accept Russian diesel — OilPrice, Euromaidan Press: 300,000 tons of Russian diesel are reportedly heading to US — but New Jersey governor warns buyers of legal risks, Traders Union: U.S. diesel import plan from Russia falters as supplies hit two-decade low, Energy News Beat: New Jersey Moves to Block Trump’s Russian Diesel Imports, EnergyNow.com: US Unlikely to Grant New Waiver to Buy Russian Oil, Wright Says, New Jersey Monitor: NJ governor warns gas companies of sanctions for importing Russian diesel
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
-
4 Nov 2026
Russian Diesel Tankers Change Course Away From US
The chance of Russian diesel imports to the United States dropped after reports that tankers carrying the fuel were changing course and turning away from their US destinations. Additionally, a new US bill seeks to block the diesel deal, while state officials and reports continue to push against the imports.
Sources: Українські Національні Новини (УНН): Russian tankers carrying diesel have sharply changed course and are no longer heading to the United States, UkrMedia News: Tankers carrying Russian diesel are turning away from the US: what happened to Trump’s deal?, Laodong.vn: Two out of three Russian diesel tankers arriving in the US suddenly changed route
After 24 h: too early. After 7 days: too early.
-
4 Nov 2026
New Jersey Governor Blocks Russian Diesel Imports
The chance of Russian diesel imports to the US decreased after the New Jersey governor warned state ports against handling the fuel and sought to block shipments. Additionally, reports indicated that Russian tankers carrying diesel had changed course and were no longer heading to the United States.
Sources: UA.NEWS: New Jersey Governor Bans Ports from Accepting Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel - Bloomberg, TradeWinds News: New Jersey governor seeks to block Russian diesel imports as tankers divert, Українські Національні Новини (УНН): Russian tankers carrying diesel have sharply changed course and are no longer heading to the United States
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
3 Nov 2026
New Jersey Governor Warns Against Russian Diesel Imports
The chance of Russian diesel imports falling came as the New Jersey governor warned port operators in the state against accepting Russian fuel. Reports noted that the governor threatened legal action and told ports to turn away the shipments despite the federal authorization.
Sources: The New York Times: Governor Warns New Jersey Ports to Turn Away Russian Fuel, Save Jersey: Can Sherrill block Russian diesel imports that Trump’s Treasury licensed? -, Kyiv Post: New Jersey Governor Threatens Legal Action Over Russian Diesel Imports, Anadolu Ajansı: New Jersey governor warns port operators against importing Russian diesel, TVP World: US governor warns against Russian diesel imports amid Trump-Putin deal, WRNJ Radio: Gov. Sherrill warns New Jersey ports against accepting Russian diesel despite Trump administration authorization
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
-
31 Oct 2026
Russian Diesel Imports Face Mixed Market Signals
Refineries and shipment schedules gained focus following the US-Russia diesel deal. However, some US firms have shunned Russian diesel despite the sanctions waiver.
Sources: Seoul Economic Daily: U.S. Firms Shun Russian Diesel Despite Trump's Sanctions Waiver, Anadolu Ajansı: Refineries and shipment schedule in focus under US-Russia diesel deal
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “US imports Russian diesel by...?”
- December 3115%
- November 3015%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US imports Russian diesel by January 31”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 19%, which means they saw about a 19 in 100 chance. That was down 29 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 30% to 21%: Russian Diesel Tankers Change Course Away From US. The chance of Russian diesel imports to the United States dropped after reports that tankers carrying the fuel were changing course and turning away from their US destinations. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, all 3 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Feb 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and the specified date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.