US imports Russian diesel by November 30?
Odds, price jumps explained, and what could move it next
Yes at 15% on 5 Nov 2026, down 53 pts over the previous 7 days. 4 big jumps since 17 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This prediction market asks whether Russian diesel fuel will be physically imported into the United States by November 30, 2026, under an agreement announced by Donald Trump on October 9, 2026. The market resolves to "Yes" if qualifying Russian diesel is delivered to a US port or territory during this period, and "No" otherwise.
Recent reports indicate that implementation of the diesel import plan is encountering significant friction and legal hurdles. While some tankers have been monitored carrying Russian diesel potentially bound for the US, others have reportedly changed course, and state officials in New Jersey have warned port operators and gas companies against accepting the fuel, citing harsh penalties and legal risks.
Key factors in the current situation include General License 135 issued by the US Treasury on October 9, 2026, which authorizes Russian diesel imports through April 7, 2027. Additionally, state-level opposition—such as warnings from New Jersey leadership—and tracking by Ukrainian officials of multiple tankers carrying approximately 300,000 tons of Russian diesel are central to the unfolding developments.
Sources: WorkBoat: NJ governor warns port operators against Russian diesel imports, The Maritime Executive: Warning of Harsh Penalties for Terminals Importing “Illegal" Russian Diesel, Українські Національні Новини (УНН): Russian tankers carrying diesel have sharply changed course and are no longer heading to the United States, The Cool Down: Russian diesel tanker reportedly clears New York destination as US import ban remains in force, UkrMedia News: Tankers carrying Russian diesel are turning away from the US: what happened to Trump’s deal?, Radio Free Europe/Radio Liberty: Ukraine Monitoring 8 Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel Potentially Bound For US, Mezha.net: Ukraine Monitors Eight Tankers Carrying Russian Diesel That Could Be Bound for US, finway.com.ua: Ukrainian officials track tankers carrying Russian diesel to US, Gazeta Express: Ukraine is monitoring eight Russian diesel tankers that could be headed to the US, Crude Oil Prices Today | OilPrice.com: New Jersey Moves to Block Trump's Russian Diesel Imports, UA.NEWS: Governor Sherrill urges New Jersey ports not to accept Russian diesel — OilPrice, Euromaidan Press: 300,000 tons of Russian diesel are reportedly heading to US — but New Jersey governor warns buyers of legal risks, Traders Union: U.S. diesel import plan from Russia falters as supplies hit two-decade low, Energy News Beat: New Jersey Moves to Block Trump’s Russian Diesel Imports, New Jersey Monitor: NJ governor warns gas companies of sanctions for importing Russian diesel
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
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4 Nov 2026
Russian Diesel Tankers Divert From US Ports
The price dropped after reports surfaced that tankers carrying Russian diesel changed course and were no longer heading to the United States. Additionally, state officials took action to warn port operators against handling Russian diesel imports.
Sources: TradeWinds News: New Jersey governor seeks to block Russian diesel imports as tankers divert, Українські Національні Новини (УНН): Russian tankers carrying diesel have sharply changed course and are no longer heading to the United States
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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29 Oct 2026
Uncertainty grows over Russian diesel imports
The chance of Russian diesel imports occurring by the deadline decreased following reports that some U.S. companies are turning away from the product and that tankers might head to Brazil instead. At the same time, lawmakers continued to push back against the arrangement.
Sources: The New Voice of Ukraine: Blumenthal demands Russian diesel tanker turn back before reaching New York, UA.NEWS: U.S. companies are turning away from Russian diesel; tankers may head to Brazil
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Russia to send diesel cargo to US
The price jumped after reports stated that Russia plans to send its first diesel cargo to the United States following a recent deal. News sources indicated the shipment is scheduled for Thursday.
Sources: Al Jazeera: Russia to send first diesel tanker to the US amid Trump deal, Reuters: Russia says it will send first diesel cargo to US on Thursday
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: held.
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17 Oct 2026
Bipartisan Lawmakers Move to Block Russian Diesel Deal
The chance of the market resolving to Yes fell as news emerged that bipartisan US lawmakers are taking steps to block the Russian diesel deal. Articles from Newsweek and Telangana Today published around that time reported on Republicans and other lawmakers working to stop the agreement.
Sources: Newsweek: Republicans Who Could Help Block Trump’s Russia Diesel Deal, Telangana Today: Bipartisan US lawmakers move to block Trump’s Russian diesel deal
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Other markets in “US imports Russian diesel by...?”
- January 3119%
- December 3115%
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US imports Russian diesel by November 30”?
On 5 Nov 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 15%, which means they saw about a 15 in 100 chance. That was down 53 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 4 Nov 2026, from 44% to 25%: Russian Diesel Tankers Divert From US Ports. The price dropped after reports surfaced that tankers carrying Russian diesel changed course and were no longer heading to the United States. Additionally, state officials took action to warn port operators against handling Russian diesel imports. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 4).
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 4 big jumps old enough to check, all 4 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move).
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 1 Dec 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
On October 9, 2026, Donald Trump announced an agreement with Vladimir Putin to import Russian diesel fuel, and the United States Treasury issued General License 135 authorizing the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel into the United States through April 7, 2027 (see: https://truthsocial.com/@realDonaldTrump/posts/117412435306815143 & https://ofac.treasury.gov/recent-actions/20261009_33). This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russian diesel fuel is imported to the United States between market creation and November 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Russian diesel fuel refers to diesel fuel of Russian production origin. Imported to the United States refers to the diesel fuel being physically delivered to a United States port or into the terrestrial territory of the United States for commercial or government use within the United States. Diesel fuel carried as a vessel’s own fuel, held in bond for re-export, or passing through the United States in transit to another country will not qualify. To qualify, the import must either be described by a consensus of credible reporting as having been made under the agreement announced on October 9, 2026 (or any amended or successor arrangement between the governments of the United States and Russia), or be authorized under General License 135 (or any amended or successor authorization permitting the importation of Russian-origin diesel fuel). The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.