US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms?
Yes at 91% on 28 Oct 2026, up 11 pts over the previous 7 days. 3 big jumps since 19 Oct 2026, listed below.
Data from Polymarket. Numbered dots are the jumps explained below.
Context
This market asks whether the current US-Iran ceasefire will hold through the upcoming US midterm elections, resolving to "No" if the United States initiates a qualifying direct military action such as an air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike by November 3, 2026. Otherwise, the market will resolve to "Yes."
Recent reports indicate that while diplomatic efforts led by Qatar and Jordan continue to seek a lasting deal, tensions remain high as the US military reports the conflict has cost over $47 billion. At the same time, recent warnings and intelligence leaks suggest the US is preparing Gulf allies for a potential short and intense conflict with Iran following the midterms.
Sources: The Diplomatic Insight: Jordan, Iran Discuss Efforts to Secure Lasting US-Iran Ceasefire, Seeking Alpha: Iran war said to cost U.S. military more than $47B, Gulf News: Iran war or peace? Qatar presents new deal to Iran as Trump says ‘anything is possible’, IranWire: US Warns Gulf Allies to Prepare for “Short and Intense” Strike on Iran Post-Midterms, CBS News: Iran war has cost $47 billion, U.S. military says, Haaretz: Report: U.S. Prepares Gulf Allies for Short Post-Midterm Conflict With Iran, The National: Middle East latest: Qatari mediators present Iran with deal to end war, official says, WSJ: U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
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3 Nov 2026
US Military Action Deadline
If the United States executes a qualifying air strike or surface-to-surface missile strike directly impacting Iran by 11:59 PM ET, the market resolves to No.
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4 Nov 2026
Market Resolution
The market closes and resolves to Yes if no qualifying US military action against Iran takes place before the deadline.
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Before midterm elections
Diplomatic Talks and Peace Proposals
Ongoing diplomatic efforts by mediators from Qatar and Jordan to secure a sustainable ceasefire could lower tensions and push the chance of Yes higher.
Source: Muslim Network TV: Jordan, Iran discuss efforts to reach sustainable ceasefire between US, Tehran, Reuters: Qatari mediators present Iran with new deal to end the war, official says, The Diplomatic Insight: Jordan, Iran Discuss Efforts to Secure Lasting US-Iran Ceasefire
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Before midterm elections
Post-Midterm Strike Warnings
Reports that the US military has warned Gulf allies to prepare for a short, intense operation against Iran after the midterms could push the chance of Yes lower if markets price in imminent action.
Source: WION: US plans to pound Iran after midterms? Report claims ‘short operation’ coming, amid Trump's hints at another Epic Fury, IranWire: US Warns Gulf Allies to Prepare for “Short and Intense” Strike on Iran Post-Midterms, WSJ: U.S. Warns Gulf of Possible Short, Intense Renewal of Iran War After Midterms
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Price jumps explained
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26 Oct 2026
Oil Prices Fall on Ceasefire Proposal
Oil prices dropped after the US and Iran received a framework ceasefire proposal. This news followed reports of a framework aimed at cooling tensions between the two nations.
Sources: EnergyNow.com: Oil Prices Fall After US and Iran Receive Framework Ceasefire Proposal
After 24 h: held. After 7 days: too early.
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21 Oct 2026
Ceasefire Talks Stumble as Iran Rejects US Demands
The chance of a continued ceasefire decreased after reports emerged that Iran rejected a US ceasefire proposal regarding uranium enrichment. Additional coverage highlighted that Iran remains determined to keep its uranium amid increasing war odds.
Sources: NewsCord: Iran Rejects US Ceasefire Over Zero Uranium Enrichment, Says Enriched Uranium Stays In Iran: how 9 outlets framed it, Al Jazeera: Iran determined to keep uranium amid increased war odds, flurry of meetings
After 24 h: partly reverted. After 7 days: too early.
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19 Oct 2026
US-Iran Ceasefire Market Drops Amid Escalation Concerns
The prediction market for the US-Iran ceasefire dropping sharply reflects growing concerns about potential military escalation ahead of the midterm elections. Articles published around the time of the price shift discuss rising tensions, security alerts, and warnings that a renewed conflict is likely.
Sources: The Times of Israel: A renewed Iran war is only a matter of time, Israeli experts warn, Al Jazeera: On Iran, Israel’s opposition is even more hawkish than Netanyahu, The Hindu: U.S. missions in West Asia issue security alert over possible Iran-backed attacks, JINSA: Iran Escalates Before U.S. Midterm Elections
After 24 h: reverted. After 7 days: reverted.
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US-Iran ceasefire continues through the midterms”?
On 28 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 91%, which means they saw about a 91 in 100 chance. That was up 11 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
Why did the odds move recently?
The latest explained move was on 26 Oct 2026, from 66% to 82%: Oil Prices Fall on Ceasefire Proposal. Oil prices dropped after the US and Iran received a framework ceasefire proposal. This news followed reports of a framework aimed at cooling tensions between the two nations. Every big move is listed under “Price jumps explained” (this one is number 3).
What could change the odds next?
Coming up: US Military Action Deadline (3 Nov 2026); Market Resolution (4 Nov 2026); Diplomatic Talks and Peace Proposals. Details are under “What could move it next”.
Do big jumps in this market usually hold?
Of the 3 big jumps old enough to check, 1 held after 24 hours (kept at least 70% of the move). The rest partly or fully reverted.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 4 Nov 2026 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “No” if the United States takes a qualifying military action against Iran by November 3, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise this market will resolve to “Yes.” A qualifying military action refers to an air strike or a surface-to-surface missile strike, initiated by the United States, that directly impacts Iran. An air strike includes bombs, air-to-surface missiles, and air-launched drones. A surface-to-surface missile strike includes one-way attack drones and surface-to-surface missiles such as cruise or ballistic missiles. The following actions do not constitute a qualifying military action: Munitions destroyed or intercepted before impact; Surface-to-air missile strikes; Small-arms fire; Ground incursions; Cyber operations; Naval gunfire and artillery fire; Howitzers, artillery pieces, mortars, and rocket artillery (e.g. MLRS systems); Minor surface-to-surface strikes, including short range loitering munitions, FPV drones, and ATGM strikes; Any threat, authorization, or announcement of force that has not been executed. Any munition that is intercepted or destroyed before impact does not constitute a qualifying military action. Debris, fragments, or any wreckage from intercepted munitions that land on Iran do not constitute a military action regardless of any damage incurred. “Iran” refers to the terrestrial territory of Iran, including its internal waters. Iran’s maritime territory and airspace are not encompassed. Where territorial borders are disputed, all territory claimed by and under the de facto control of Iran as of market creation will qualify. The occurrence, attribution, and timing of a qualifying military action will be primarily determined based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources. Where multiple sources conflict regarding the occurrence, attribution, or timing of a relevant military action, this market will remain open until the earlier of: i) the confirmation of the occurrence, attribution, and timing of the action based on a consensus of information available from the resolution sources or ii) 3 full calendar days (Iran Standard Time) from the date of the first credibly reported evidence of the action. If this period would extend past the end date, this market will remain open to allow for 3 full calendar days to pass. At the end of the third calendar day, if conflicting reports remain, the incident will be adjudicated based on the totality of information available from the resolution sources at that time. No single statement, denial, or presentation of evidence will govern where it is contradicted by the totality of information. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments and militaries of the United States and Iran and a consensus of credible reporting.