US recession by end of 2026?
Yes at 6% on 29 Oct 2026, down 1 pts over the previous 7 days. No big jumps detected yet.
Data from Polymarket.
Context
This prediction market asks whether the United States will experience a recession by the end of 2026. It resolves to "Yes" if U.S. real GDP growth shows a negative annualized rate for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026, or if the NBER officially declares a recession during 2025 or 2026 before the Q4 2026 advance GDP estimate is released, and otherwise resolves to "No".
Current economic indicators and reports heading into the release of the third-quarter GDP data point toward continued expansion rather than a recession. Analysts and officials expect strong Q3 GDP growth driven by consumer spending and artificial intelligence-related investments offsetting drags from oil prices.
Key factors and figures highlighted in recent reports include U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent anticipating strong third-quarter growth and upcoming GDP snapshots arriving ahead of midterm elections.
Sources: NAI500: Artificial Intelligence Is Driving US Economic Expansion, but Institutions Disagree on Its Contribution, San Luis Obispo Tribune: AI-related investment, consumers likely boosted US economic growth in third quarter, IndexBox: US Q3 GDP Growth Expected at 3.2% as AI Investment Offsets Oil Price Drag - News and Statistics, Traders Union: U.S. economy likely posts fastest GDP growth in a year on consumer spending, AI investment, Free Malaysia Today: AI investment, consumer spending likely to boost US growth in Q3, FXStreet: US GDP seen above estimates in Q3, ABC News - Breaking News, Latest News and Videos: GDP report set to provide snapshot of economy ahead of midterm elections, CNBC TV18: US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent expects strong third quarter GDP growth and backs Fed Chair Kevin Warsh
Written by AI from the linked news sources and checked automatically, not by a person.
What could move it next
No upcoming events listed for this market yet.
Price jumps explained
No jumps detected for this market yet.
Questions about this market
What are the odds for “US recession by end of 2026”?
On 29 Oct 2026, Polymarket traders priced Yes at 6%, which means they saw about a 6 in 100 chance. That was down 1 points over the previous 7 days. The live price is shown in the chart at the top of this page.
How does this market resolve?
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". The full Polymarket rules are at the bottom of this page.
When does this market end?
Polymarket lists 31 Jan 2027 as the end date. It can settle earlier or later if the rules say so, for example when an official result comes in.
Can I bet on this market on predictionwave?
No. predictionwave only explains the odds. The market itself runs on Polymarket, and trading there is not allowed in every country.
How this market resolves (Polymarket rules)
This market will resolve to “Yes” if either of the following conditions is met: 1. The seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly U.S. real GDP from the previous quarter is less than 0.0 for two consecutive quarters between Q2 2025 and Q4 2026 (inclusive), as reported by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA). 2. The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) publicly announces that a recession has occurred in the United States, at any point during 2025 or 2026, with the announcement made by the time the BEA releases the advance estimate for Q4 2026. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Note that advance estimates will be considered. For example, if upon release, the advance estimate for Q3 2025 was negative, and the Q2 2025's most recent, up-to-date estimate was also negative, this market would resolve to "Yes". If on December 31, 2026 the latest estimate for quarterly GDP in Q3 2025 was negative, this market will stay open until the Advance estimate of Q4 2026 is published, at which point it will resolve to "Yes" if Q4 2026 was negative or if the NBER declares a recession by then. This market will remain open until either i) one of the specified conditions is met; or ii) the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 is released. If the GDP advance estimate for Q4 2026 has not been released by June 30, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve based on the available releases at that time. The resolution source will be the official announcements from the NBER and the BEA’s estimate of seasonally adjusted annualized percent change in quarterly US real GDP from previous quarters as released by the Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), https://www.bea.gov/data/gdp/gross-domestic-product